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A story from JLM Pacific Epoch has put the Chip Shots hyperbole detector into overdrive. The report says that Taiwan-based Asia Solar Ltd. and Hong Kong's Jianqiao Solar have signed government contracts to invest $45 million and $90 million, respectively, thin-film photovoltaic projects in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province, China.

Even in today's challenging financial environment, a $135 million TFPV play merits attention but does not stretch credulity.  But then the numbers, at least those reported, get a bit dicey.

Asia Solar will "develop, produce, and sell thin-film solar cell equipment and parts and reach annual capacity of 48 production lines for production value of $6 billion within five years. The company's first line is scheduled to be installed in the first half of 2009," according to the report.

A manufacturing line getting installed by the end of June seems doable, as long as factory construction and facilitization are almost complete and the tools have been ordered already. But when I first read those previous claims of "48 production lines" and "$6 billion within five years," I wondered if there might be a typo or two--or worse.

First, to build four dozen lines in five years averages out to 9.6 lines per year between 2009 and 2013--almost a line per month. Even the vaunted speed of Chinese construction is not up to that task nor is the upstream TFPV equipment and materials supply chain currently capable of cranking out that amount of capital and consumable goods.

Second, though I'm not sure exactly what "production value" means, let's assume it refers to the value of the process and other tools produced from all those lines. By some forecasters' estimates, annual sales for the entire worldwide TFPV equipment sector may not even amount to $6 billion by 2013, so it's beyond unlikely that the mysterious Asia Solar will pull that off, with or without government monies.

Even if the currency has mistakenly been shown as U.S. dollars when it should have been Chinese yuan, 6 billion RMB is almost a billion dollars these days--still a tidy (and unrealistic) sum.

So what about this Jianqiao Solar outfit? The story goes on to say that it will "use Asia Solar equipment to design and manufacture thin-film solar cells on two 50-MW and two 100-MW lines. The company hopes to reach annual production value of $900 million within three years."

Although goals of 300 MW of TFPV production capacity and an "annual production value of $900 million within three years" may not seem as outlandish as the previous numbers, they are still pretty aggressive.

It would be nice to know what kind of TFPV is involved-- is it amorphous-/tandem-junction/microcrystalline silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), or copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS)?-- since it's a trickier proposition to perfect one's process and ramp to volume if the TFPV material involved happens to come from the II-VI family.

For benchmarking comparison's sake, let's choose a-Si/micro-Si as the thin film used and take the case of two-year-old Signet Solar and its fab near Dresden, the first TFPV production facility using an Applied Materials' SunFab turnkey production line to receive factory acceptance test (FAT) certification and ship a megawatt of modules.

It took Signet about a year from starting construction to get FAT and then send those first several thousand big pieces of solar glass out the door to customers. The company says the factory is rated at 20 MW, and that it hopes to ramp up capacity at the German plant to 120 MW by 2010, and add another 300 MW of capacity at a second site in India by 2012.

Signet's ramp plans seem pretty aggressive too, but the company has already proven it knows how to execute on a manufacturing capacity buildout, at least on its initial line. So we have reason to give the Signet team the benefit of the doubt when evaluating their expansion plans.

As far as I know, Asia Solar and Jinqiao Solar have yet to prove anything--except the ability to sign millions of dollars in Chinese government contracts. Given the overwhelming hyperbole surrounding the companies' initial announcement, doubt may be too weak a term to describe the veracity and feasibility of their purported plans.