Few pieces of photovoltaic manufacturing equipment have nicknames as endearing as
DayStar Technologies'
Big Baby deposition megasystem. But don't let the cute sobriquet
distract you from a central truth about the copper indium gallium
(di)selenide (CIGS) start-up's plight: if the oversize, multichamber
production-development system doesn't measure up and perform as
expected, DayStar has no future as a volume PV manufacturer. By the
tenor of CEO Stephan DeLuca's comments during Tuesday's midyear update
conference call, Big Baby has made its parents proud of late.
Updating DayStar's three-part strategy--minimodule development,
CIGS deposition and other process scale-up, and commercial
buildout--DeLuca said the company (with a current headcount of "between
85 and 90") is on track to start receiving tools and automation systems
by Q3 2008 at its currently fitting-up Newark, CA, factory site, to
ramp production of its first 25-MW line by Q1 2009, and ship its first
CIGS-on-glass product modules by Q3 2009. He believes the firm is well
on its way to make "the transition from a development-stage company to
a commercial manufacturing company."
DayStar hopes to ramp production by Q109.
While "much of the minimodule development focused on the CIGS
deposition process," the company "also used this program to develop
processes for the other steps in making a complete module," according
to DeLuca. "A key feature for any PV module is its survivability, and
proper encapsulation is key to making modules that last more than 20
years. CIGS is especially sensitive to moisture" and needs different
materials than those used by silicon thin films.
"With this in mind, we have developed lamination and edge-seal
processes for our glass modules that we've tested for moisture
penetration," he continued. "They've passed the 1000-hour damp-heat
test, which we believe provides a good indication that our
encapsulation process will protect the modules from moisture over a
20-year lifetime."
Other advances in fundamental engineering issues such as
maintaining effective control over Big Baby's reactive sputtering
process ability (including the incorporation of tricky selenium films,
which DeLuca sees as a "key to the cost effective manufacturing of
high-performance CIGS"), making sure the films behave within the
uniformity specs, and ensuring that the substrate can be heated up to
the proper temperature in the specified amount of time for high-volume
monolithic processing have given DayStar the confidence "that the basic
structure of our tool design is sound, so we have released the design
to begin fabrication of our production CIGS deposition tool."
The big fella hasn't been put through all its paces though. While
the molybdenum deposition tests have gone well, the first CIGS dep runs
haven't been done yet. DeLuca explained that they will start to make
CIGS films by the end of this month, with a stable process expected by
the end of the quarter. Still, the company exec believes the results
bode well for the proprietary one-stage sputter deposition process to
achieve the factory total cycle time of one module per minute, once
volume production kicks in.
As for the latest conversion efficiencies, DeLuca said they've been
focusing more on scale-up and production issues and maintaining
efficiencies at previous levels, rather than bumping up the conversion
numbers. He did acknowledge that the longer-term target remains 11.5%
or better module efficiency.
To meet the demand of its solar power plant customers that want to
lay out fields of their TFPV modules, DayStar will first ramp to 25 MW
at its Newark fab, which the company believes can ultimately hold up to
80 MW of capacity and be profitable at the initial volume level. It
also has plans for a future, as-yet-unsited 100-MW facility, which
DeLuca said is key to reaching the CIGS firm's ultimate goal of
manufacturing at <$1 per watt.
In describing the production scale-up, DeLuca said that first, one
set of process tools will be installed and get up and running, and then
other equipment will be added when bottlenecks are hit. Citing the
laminator gear as an example of a tool with limited output, "we'll need
two (to reach 25 MW), but start with one," taking equipment lead times
into account and adding systems as needed "to incrementally increase
the capacity," while not spending too much on captial expenditures.
DeLuca did acknowledge the impact of the current equipment and
materials purchasing on the company's financials. "As we build out our
factory, there will be significant costs involved that will affect our
balance sheet, as we have discussed before. We will go into more detail
on this in our second-quarter financial results conference call in
early August."
Whether the reorganized and reenergized DayStar can make an impact
and survive in the increasingly competitive CIGS and overall thin-film
PV space depends on its ability to execute its manufacturing gameplan
without losing its shirt and get to market asap with reliable,
reasonably efficient, attractively priced modules for the grid-tied
sector. With Big Baby on their side, DeLuca and his team think they
have a legit shot.