When GE's Energy division announced earlier this month that it had
taken a majority interest in cadmium-telluride thin-film PV module
start-up
PrimeStar Solar, the Golden, CO-based company found itself on the solar manufacturing industry radar--and in
this blog's crosshairs.
Although not fully cloaked in stealth mode, the two-year-old firm
hasn't shared much information about itself, starting with its
detail-deficient Website. After a presentation by Fred Seymour,
PrimeStar's VP of technology, at IntertechPira's Photovoltaic Summit
last week in San Diego, in which he provided a good general CdTe
overview, a few more details also emerged about his team's efforts
chasing down First Solar.
The upbeat Seymour, who worked for many years in the gold mining
industry, referred to his more-recent PV activities as "mining
photons." He started his talk with some background on the roots of CdTe
technology, going back to its beginnings at RCA in the late 1950s, the
establishment of the first heterojunction cells in the early 1970s, and
the refinement of the material through the 1980s and 1900s leading up
to the record 16.5% cell efficiencies achieved at the National
Renewable Energy Lab in 2001. As he pointed out, there has been some 35
years of active development work on CdTe technology.
After explaining the basic CdTe film stack (calling the p-type
absorber the "workhorse layer"), he outlined the five key areas for
thin-film process development: efficiency, uniformity, repeatability,
stability, and cost. It all starts with a high-performance film stack,
then one needs the proper toolset to deposit said films across the
substrate with as little variability as possible, and then the source
material and process specs must be dialed in and a forgiving, tolerant
process window must be established for manufacturing in volume.
If the module isn't stable, with a proper warranty based on field
and accelerated life tests, the market won't accept it, and finally,
Seymour emphasized that manufacturing costs must be driven down
relentlessly, with source materials, operating efficiencies, and
equipment capital expenditures pushed ever lower.
In talking about the US Department of Energy's CdTe technology
roadmap for 2007-2015, he noted that there will be "no technological
breakthrough" needed. Rather, the key is "good, disciplined, consistent
[engineering] execution to achieve the goals" (13% module efficiency,
70 cents per watt module cost, $2 per watt total installed system cost,
95% yields), using lean manufacturing and six-sigma protocols and
practices. Seymour used the term "discipline" several times over the
course of his presentation, a word not always associated with startup
enterprises but a key factor in any hopes of success that PrimeStar has
in eventually grabbing a part of the PV market.
Noting the growing number of CdTe players, he said "there is alot
of froth in the market" and expects to see significant consolidation as
well as the establishment of strong(er) supply and sales channels. As
for the challenges and opportunities facing the sector, he cited the
perceived toxicity risks with cadmium, then discounted it, noting among
other things how the Cd is inherently "sequestered" safely within the
modules.
He also mentioned the perceived scarcity of tellurium, but the old
mining guy (OK, he's not old, so "former mining guy") disputed such
claims, saying there's a 300-500 metric ton supply of Te available.
While some price disruptions are likely, there's plenty of the element
available in the seabed and elsewhere, "if," as he told me, "you know
where to look."
Seymour listed several potential areas for further cost reduction,
including increased module efficiencies, more enhanced/ disciplined
(there's that word again) manufacturing practices, reduced material
cost through a thinner CdTe layer, and an improved value/supply chain.
He sees a "clear path for getting to 15% conversion efficiency modules"
and believes the company "is well on track to beat [the Solar America
Initiative target of] 70 cents per watt without major breakthroughs."
Coming to the more PrimeStar-specific part of his presentation, the
technologist said the company designs, builds, operates, and owns its
production tools, with an equipment team featuring several members who
worked at Applied Films, now a part of Applied Materials' PV and glass
OEM efforts following its acquisition a few years ago. The startup is
in what Seymour called a "rapid ramp," pushing through the prototype
stage to pilot and then volume production, though he would not divulge
any specifics about the actual timeline or expected capacities.
The company has licensed and commercialized the world-record-setting
NREL CdTe recipe
and maintains a close relationship with the nearby lab, including
continued cooperative R&D efforts. When asked during the Q&A
how PrimeStar's CdTe differed from First Solar's, he called his company
"a fast follower" and said the NREL-based tech in use has a different
film stack than First's, employing what he called "advanced window
layers."
He also said that in terms of relative performance degradation,
it's only a "little higher" than that seen in silicon-based modules,
noting that CdTe has "less packing factor" compared to the traditional
technology when looking at the loss of efficiencies from the cell to
module, and between "hero" and top or average "commercial"
efficiencies.
Unlike some emerging thin-film companies who have made a
self-promotional racket before they had actually perfected their
manufacturing processes or had anything to actually sell, PrimeStar is
biding its time. Modules will be produced "when we're ready," Seymour
said coyly, "it's important not to put out product too early."
If PrimeStar stays disciplined and keeps its eye on the proverbial
ball, I wouldn't be surprised to see substantive news from the CdTe
startup by year's end and throughout 2009.