Blogger
Tom Cheyney
Tom Cheyney is former senior editor of PV-Tech / Photovoltaics International magazine. A veteran technology journalist / editor / blogger, he covered the semiconductor, microelectronics and solar sectors for many years - since fax machines were state of the art. His PV-Tech blog has become a must-read for industry insiders and observers. He was also chief editor of "The Rise of Thin-Film Solar Technology" book published in early 2010.
As last week's Semicon West/Intersolar North America colocated
extravaganza wore on, several people asked me why I wasn't blogging
every day--or several times daily--during the events. Although there
were moments when I did experience blogger's withdrawal, I came to San
Francisco with the intent of information-gathering (the data dump) and
network-building (the shmooze), not chasing story after story down and
trying to match my peers in a meaningless race to see who could file
more copy or shoot more video interviews.
Bully for them, such efforts have their place, but remember that adage about missing the forest for the trees?
Frankly, the public relations/marketing/news reporting noise level
at these megashows is deafening, with many journalists ending up
reporting on the same few dozen companies or stories (often the ones
that the more wily PR agencies and corporate communications departments
do their darnedest to get us to cover). And how many people are
actually reading the info avalanche that cascades over the Internet
wires, especially if they're working the exhibit halls and conferences
themselves (or maybe even holding down the fort back at the office or
the plant)?
While it's a great feeling to break a story and beat your media
colleagues to the punch, I believe one of the central objectives of a
blog column like Chip Shots is to sift through all that noise to find a
few meaningful signals. Plus, by avoiding the immediate gratification
of insta-reporting or insta-blogging, I can see what my colleagues may
have missed or overlooked (perhaps even break a story), take a deep
breath (or a chill-pill), and offer my considered musings.
As others have noted, the Intersolar portion of the show(s) had the
strongest buzz and densest crush; even in the other, less-trafficked
halls, hundreds of Semicon exhibitors proudly showed off their supposed
expertise in solar manufacturing.
Applied Materials' solar booth featured a big-ass piece of
Signet Solar
thin-film PV module glass as well as an endlessly repeating video about
how one can install such frameless BAPV panels in about two minutes and
do so much less expensively than with conventional module setups. In
true
AMAT fashion, the large booth blocked the aisle, forcing me to do
an "end-around" to get to one of the companies I met with whose own
stand lay on the other side of the divide.
Apart from the glamor and sizzle of Applied's booth and outsized
"nanomanufacturing" marketing campaign (was I the only one noting that
the company's "CREATE CHANGE" messaging bore a resemblance to Barack
Obama's campaign materials?), there were some troubling signals that
all may not be right in the giant equipment supplier's world. Take its
silicon systems group (please!): it's really hurting, with business off
as much as 50% during the current
semi tool slump, according to some
sources.
AMAT's solar efforts may be going gangbusters and have billions of
dollars in bookings, but several people told me that the company has
been experiencing serious manufacturing setbacks during the
installation and qualification of its turnkey lines at
Moser Baer's 200-MW TFPV module plant
in India. Problematic yields and disappointing low-single-digit
conversion efficiencies have evidently forced Applied to send in scores
of additional personnel to deal with the crisis.
Even the most optimistic, bullish-on-
AMAT observer should
understand that there would be growing pains with the first series of
turnkey PV line installations. Call it "early adopter syndrome." But
sources say the situation at Moser may be a bit more convulsively
serious than the mere expected hiccups, although the word from Signet's
Dresden factory seems to be more positive.
All those years of semiconductor and flat-panel-display manufacturing experience serve the company well, but a solar line is not
a CMOS or LCD line (and in
AMAT's case, it's a new kind of solar line),
with its own particular, and sometimes prickly, challenges. Another
issue that Applied is dealing with, according to sources? Lead times
for production and delivery of its turnkey equipment may be pushing
out.
The other potentially disturbing news comes from the technical
arena and has to do with the ultimate reliability and lifetime of those
thin-film silicon-on-glass modules that the
AMAT-equipped lines have
begun to churn out. There's concern in some quarters that by twisting
certain process "knobs" to boost efficiencies toward the end of the
manufacturing line, the result could be that units might suffer from
worse-than-expected working conversion efficiencies once installed in
the field, that their ability to convert photons into
electricity-bearing electrons might become more degraded than
previously thought--even to the point of system failure.
This issue of "stabilized and degraded conversion efficiencies"
(caused by light-induced defects or other mechanisms), with regards to
the
AMAT SunFabbed TFPV modules and in general, will be addressed in
future blogs, once I have a chance to speak with some
experts--including Applied's own coterie.
