Shaking out some short takes from Greentech Media’s solar industry summit

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Tom Cheyney

Tom Cheyney is former senior editor of PV-Tech / Photovoltaics International magazine. A veteran technology journalist / editor / blogger, he covered the semiconductor, microelectronics and solar sectors for many years - since fax machines were state of the art. His PV-Tech blog has become a must-read for industry insiders and observers. He was also chief editor of "The Rise of Thin-Film Solar Technology" book published in early 2010.

Greentech Media's "Surviving the Shakeout" solar industry summit wrapped yesterday at the Kierland Resort on the outskirts of Phoenix, leaving multiple gleanings, data points, and offered opinions in its wake. Although some presentations crossed the line into the infomercial realm, the lineup of speakers and panelists from across the proverbial value chain provided a pretty decent overview of the state of the sector, with an extra emphasis on what's going on in Arizona. Here are some summit short takes.

A couple of solar old salts, Bud Annan of Arizona State University and Roy Kuga of Pacific Gas & Electric, shook their respective heads in amazement at the incredibly rapid pace of change of late in the industry.

Annan, who evidently has a cap that reads "I was in solar before solar was cool," said during a panel on building a world-class solar sector in his home state that he's "just beginning to see the potential for solar energy now for the first time in his 40 years" in the field.

But he also had a "be careful what you wish for" observation about what he sees as the imminent arrival of unsubsidized peak-power grid parity in Arizona. The state "needs to be ready for that kind of market by 2012" but he believes there's much work to be done to resolve before such readiness can happen, in terms of public policy, the manufacturing and installation infrastructure, research efforts, and the like.

Kuga, who's no energy-biz spring chicken himself, commented that he's "seen more innovation in the solar industry in the past two years than anything in his 30 years in the utility business." That said, he also noted the risk-averse behavior of utilities with respect to new, innovative solar power or other renewable energy approaches, saying they "need to be proven technology."

One nontraditional module technology beginning to prove itself in the residential space is First Solar's cadmium telluride thin-film PV, according to SolarCity's Lyndon Rive. He said installation of the sleek black units are "taking off," that the CdTe panels have the best performance based on their cost per total (kilo)watt-hour produced, and that they do "really well" in hot weather--making them ideal for most Arizona rooftops.

This "more bang for the buck" notion and the cool look of the First Solar modules also dovetail with Rive's comments that the top two upfront barriers to adoption of residential solar are the cost (by far the main sticking point), with aesthetics coming in second.

One thing Rive forgot to mention is that SolarCity has a five-year, 100-MW module supply deal with First Solar and that the thin-film PV company also has a $25 million equity investment stake in the systems integration/installation firm, so his glowing view of the CdTe panels' popularity might be a wee bit colored by these business relationships.

Premier Power's Miguel de Anquin spoke highly of another, newer thin-film tech--Solyndra's cylindrical CIGS modules (although he didn't mention Solyndra by name during his talk). What de Anquin described as the "largest installation" of the tubular PV will soon come online at a customer site in Zaragoza, Spain. He called it "a great, great project" and noted that they see "10-20% more power generated" by the CIGS units than expected.

After the session, he told me that the installation of hundreds of kilowatts' worth of the Solyndra panels will be completed this month, but the system won't likely be turned on until later in May. He says the output of the units varies somewhat, but is still quite good. One bonus will be the opportunity to make side-by-side comparisons of the CIGS with a neighboring array using GE crystalline-silicon modules that was deployed and activated at the customer location about a year ago, according to de Anquin.

Another solar site about to be inaugurated is the Lockheed Martin test bed in Moorestown, NJ. Mention of the defense contractor's activities often elicits a "what the hell is Lockheed Martin doing in the solar power industry," said the company's Chris Myers during his infomercial, er, presentation. (Note to Chris: Back off the mic and the bombast, man, you were booming!)

He believes that energy has become a national security issue for the U.S. (hence LM's moves into the sector). The corporation, along with partner Starwood Energy, intends to leverage its command-and-control and manufacturing expertise in the utility-scale concentrated solar area--both CPV and CST. Part of the effort involves the 100-meter-long test array, officially known as the Solar System Test and Engineering Site (SolSTES). LM broke ground on the construction of the test bed in December and it's now operational, with a ribbon-cutting ceremony taking place April 22.

Also up and running is Schott Solar's new CSP receiver/collector and c-Si PV module manufacturing plant in Albuquerque. After hiring the manufacturing team and finishing the installation and tuning of the equipment over the past few quarters, Mark Finocharrio said the company "turned the key" on the factory April 1--about 13 months after breaking ground--and production is rolling.

When asked how Schott is dealing with current turbulence in the solar sector, he noted that in "any industry growing as fast as solar, you're in a constant state of shakeout." In the company's view, since it's not a system supplier but a high-volume components manufacturer, it needs to watch its customer base and work with those who will be survivors as well as balance its own product portfolio.

Like several other participants at the event, Finocharrio doesn't see the solar-related portions of the U.S. stimulus package having much of an immediate effect but is upbeat about the longer-term prospects. With its corporate year-end of Sept. 30, he said Schott is not looking for "much if any impact this fiscal year" but did call the effort a "great design."

While trying not to fall victim to fast-talking Greentech Media analyst Daniel Englander's notion of "irrational exuberance" that's been endemic in the industry's recent demand-fed growth cycle, attendees and presenters at the event came away with many reasons to believe in what GTM boss Scott Clavenna called solar power's "tremendous long-term opportunity."