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This sixteenth edition of Photovoltaics International marks four years of production of the quarterly journal. As always, our focus is on efficiency and quality improvement and cost reduction in manufacturing. As 2012 rolls along, companies are falling by the wayside due to supply and demand issues, ASP declines and drastic governmental subsidy cuts. A clear picture of 2012 is offered through papers from the likes of TÜV Rheinland, Fraunhofer ISE, SEMI PV Group and EPIA, amongst others.
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This digital interactive Lite sees Tom Cheyney follow Agua Caliente’s progress on becoming one of first truly utility-scale PV power farms, where 40–50MW (AC) will be commissioned by the end of the year. We also feature one of the world’s largest silicon thin-film PV power plants, Avenal; a report on warnings of the collapse of module prices from Solarbuzz and PI-Berlin presents tips on PV module testing. A print version of this edition will be distributed at Solar Power International 2011 in Dallas, Texas.
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Manufacturing the Solar Future 2012, the second in the Photovoltaics International PV Production Annual series, delivers the next installment of in-depth technical manufacturing information on PV production processes.
Comments
It is a very thought provoking article. I agree with a lot of the calculations and I also do agree with the comment about the “important constraints” as mentioned above. So if the US moves more to a utility scale for this proposed growth, wouldn’t also the BOS costs be streamlined? I think the next article can expand on the relationship between (Utility or Distributed Generation) vs. installation size, BOS and module costs.
I am also curious to see a relationship between current retail electricity cost ( according to location) and potential utility scale cost of solar power generation vs. location.
I am currently implementing similar models for Japan- in this case there will also be important constraints.
Mr. Keiser,
“the relationship between installed cost and LCOE is determined by a factor of 7 without incentives, i.e., US$4.00/W installed cost equates to approximately US$0.28/kWh. “
400/28 = 14.3 so wouldn’t that be a factor of 14, not 7?
Solar is going to grow No questions but the growth is unlikely to be as rosy as the articles suggests. Several fundamental issues:
- Technology has reached a point where BoS costs are roughly equal to panel costs. Panels may be able to maintain a 7% price reduction curve for a while but it is unlikely that BoS can follow that curve.
- Distributed solar is not as cost effective as utility solar and local contractors and permitting costs mean 7% cost curve will not materialize for smaller installations
- For the past several years installed costs for small installations have been relatively stagnant as dropping panel costs were somewhat offset by dropping rebates. This phenomenon will continue as rebates decline.
- Utilities will not just sit there and let competiton eat their lunch. Energy prices WILL decline when solar becomes a meaningful threat to utilities.
Very interesting article. I would like to mention some of the “..important constraints ” being omitted from the analysis as noted by the author. It appears that the cost of electricity being referenced is the retail cost to the consumer. If so, this implies that solar would be installed “behind the meter” (not utility scale). Aside from a higher installed cost (i.e. lacking some economies of scale, although this is a bit of a generalization) the greatest challenge facing DG (Distributed Generation, which describes most behind-the-meter installations) is the fact that most utilities have no motivation to support DG since it represents lost revenue and a challenge to their business model. Regulatory compliance is the typical motivator. Once compliance has been achieved, support drops off. What this essentially means is that much of the solar market in the US will shift to the utility side of the meter (as utilities meet compliance targets) and the electricity produced will be subject to transmission & distribution charges, as well as other charges imposed by utilities. This is a challenge we have to address as an industry, here in the US.