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In its weekly newsletter to clients, market research firm Gartner has drastically revised upwards its forecast for global PV installations in 2010. A key knock-on affect of the significant growth few had projected for the German market, which saw at least 3.8GW installed in 2009, Gartner said that global PV installations will exceed 8GW in 2010 and potentially reach 10GW.
Gartner had previously forecasted 2010 PV installs to reach 6.9%, which was before the boom in Germany late 2010 had been realised as well as projections of continued overcapacity that would see average selling prices (ASP) to contract by 20% for modules in 2010. However, most module manufacturers are reporting sell-out conditions through the first half of 2010 and only slight pricing pressure as a result.
Gartner noted that due to the expected feed-in tariff cuts planned in Germany for July, PV installations will likely be front-half year loaded with as much as 60% of installations occurring before the tariff change.
