After a close inspection of its previous forecast made in the third quarter of 2010 for the PV industry, IMS Research has reiterated that that new PV installations grew by a massive 130% to reach 17.5GW in 2010. Installations in 2011 are expected to increase by a double-digit amount to reach 20.5GW, culminating in a total installed capacity of 58GW by the end of this year.
“20GW is a huge number for 2011, and would be a tremendous achievement, which I’m sure most would have thought impossible just two or three years ago,” remarked IMS Research’s PV Research Director, Ash Sharma. “Having measured the PV supply chain at several points, our PV analyst team remains very upbeat about the market’s development this year; and even more so about the next two to three years. Our latest models predict installations of 35GW in 2014 which certainly now looks achievable.”
IMS Research has raised its outlook for 2011 following its latest round of research and surveys, which identified that at least 22 countries would each install more than 50MW this year.
Of those, 18 of them are expected to install at least 100MW each with 4 expected to install at least 1GW in 2011.
Although acknowledging a reduction in demand in Germany is to be expected as well as in the Czech Republic, PV component price reductions would help to accelerate growth in other countries, suggesting that Germany would not have the same influence over the fortunes of the PV industry as it has done in the past.
IMS Research predicts EMEA’s share of installations will fall from 81% in 2010 to 68% in 2011, despite high growth still being seen in many large markets such as Italy, as well as in emerging countries like the UK, Greece and Bulgaria.
Indeed, the market research firm picked-out Italy in 2010 as being the second largest market to Germany and reason for its final installation figure for 2010 being higher than many other forecasts. Sharma noted the research firm expects the Italians to install close to a massive 3GW in 2010, based on its extensive research of the supply chain and system developers.
IMS Research’s long-term outlook for the industry remains encouraging, with demand diversifying outside the ‘usual’ two or three key countries and predicts that at least 34 countries will install more than 100MW in 2015, up from just 13 last year.