Feed-in tariff changes are to negatively impact photovoltaic (PV) installations in France, Belgium, Spain and Czech Republic in 2011, according to a new report from iSuppli Corp. However, the robust and stronger than expected growth of the German market for 2010 and 2011 will keep overall installations figures up compared with previous years. The market research firm expects worldwide installations in 2010 will amount to 15.8GW up from iSuppli’s previous outlook of 14.2GW, representing 118.7% growth from 7.2GW installed in 2009. In 2011 installations will amount to 19.3GW, down slightly from its previous forecast of 20.2GW.
“Germany’s solar business—the world’s largest market—grew at an extraordinary rate in the second quarter of 2010, causing PV installations to exceed expectations during the first half of the year,” said Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, for iSuppli. “In the first half, Germany installed 3.9GW worth of solar systems. Germany’s surprising performance was driven by excellent investment conditions and demand pull-forward prior to a cut of the country’s Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) incentive program in July.”
The strong market performance next year is expected to by a seasonal slowdown in installations during the first six months of 2011, with module prices declining enough to stimulate demand.
“The solar market frequently suffers a slowdown in the first quarter of a year, and 2011 will be no exception,” de Haan said. “This deceleration will cause inventories of PV solar modules to rise—and pricing for solar modules to drop, boosting sales for the entire year.”
The market research firm is expected average worldwide pricing for crystalline solar modules to decline by 9% in the first quarter and by 6% in the second quarter.
The result will produce system prices of €1.9 to €2.7 euros per watt in Germany—depending on the system size. Once this level is reached, demand will pick up again.
iSuppli is reiterating its expectation of a strong market in Germany next year with 9.4GW worth of new installations.
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