Despite the confusion over the GSE’s PV installation figures for 2010, Barclays Capital PV analyst Vishal Shah said in an investors note that no matter what the actual installation figure will be for 2010, it is increasingly likely that the Italian government would have to pay for 6GW worth of subsidies at the 2010 FiT rate. This would mean that subsidy burden would cost Italy €44 billion over the next 20 years. With 4GW of applications pending grid connection, this would result in a US$60 billion incentive burden.
Shah noted that Germany’s subsidy burden is €25 billion, while Spain’s stands at €17 billion. Shah said in the report that they calculated the subsidy burden to Italian consumers would increase from €0.25 c/kWh in 2009 to €1.42 c/kWh in 2010, representing 6% of the electricity bill.
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In Spain and more recently Germany, as the market for solar installations overheated and concerns over the impact increased electricity prices would have on consumers, governments have made significant cuts to the feed-in tariffs.
According to Shah, there is an increasing risk of a significant subsidy cut in Italy in order to control market growth from the second half of 2011.