2013 will be the year of stabilisation for the global PV market, according to clean technology market research and consultancy firm Navigant Research.
Despite trade wars and incentive cuts, further price reductions are predicted as PV is expected to be cost competitive by the end of the decade in most countries. The report, ‘Solar PV Market Forecasts’ also predicts annual PV installations are to double in capacity, from 35.6GW to 73.4GW by 2020, with annual revenue surpassing US$134 billion at that time.
The market will mature and develop, mainly by the growth of non-distributed solar; distributed solar is to account for less than half of all installations by 2014, and through to 2020, non-distributed solar will make up for more than half the market.
“Lower prices for solar PV modules are opening up new markets for distributed PV, while also helping the technology reach grid parity more quickly,” says Dexter Gauntlett, senior research analyst with Navigant Research.
The market will shift from Europe to the Pacific, with market opportunities noted specifically in Chile, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
“The Asia Pacific region is expected to be the leading regional market for solar PV installations throughout the forecast period, led by China, where more than 100GW of solar PV will be deployed by 2020,” said Gauntlett.
IHS market research also recently predicted emerging markets’ installed capacity will double by 2017, with Thailand leading the pack.