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With ten highly prominent initial public offerings (IPOs) racked up already, China's solar energy industry is poised to make a major impact on worldwide polysilicon capacity and solar cell production. However, determining who will succeed among the new firms in the domestic and international market remains highly uncertain as it is likely that at least some publicly announced plans will not materialize into actual projects, write Tom Morrow and Dylen Liu.  

In the last two years, China's ten IPOs have raised nearly US$2 billion to meet the world's growing demand for PV-related products and services. The attractiveness of PV to Chinese industrial policy is also understandable due to China's internal demand for energy, the exciting global economic projections for the solar industry, and the alignment of PV manufacturing needs with China's current industrial and technology capabilities. Indeed, China's domestic market for accumulated PV installation is expected to reach 300 MW by 2010, up from only 80 MW accumulated and 10 MW yearly installation in 2006. But the Chinese PV industry is planning to more than meet its domestic needs.

Since 2004, the country's solar cell production and capacity have reached growth rates from 100%-400% per year, contributing to the global shortage of polysilicon feedstocks. Cell capacity of 4 GW has been announced for this year and, after growing a projected 40% in 2008 so far, China's solar wafer capacity is also expected to reach 4 GW. However, how much polysilicon will be available and who will be able to obtain it remains extremely uncertain.

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