According to a new report from Barclays Capital financial analyst Vishal Shah, channel checks of the recent data from Italy’s GSE point to an annual PV installation run-rate of 1.8GW. Nearly 150MW of solar projects were connected to the grid in February and March, which still remains preliminary. The Italian market could likely install an additional 1GW through September, according to the analyst.
Other impressive data show that Germany is approaching ~1.5GW of quarterly installation run-rate, while Italy could be running at ~450MW per quarter.
Shah said in the report that a bottom-up analysis shows that nearly 650MW worth of projects have already been announced for the Italian market for 2010 construction, with more than 160MW worth of projects already announced so far in March.
According to the analyst, the March run-rate in Italy would imply an additional 1GW of new announcements and 1.2GW of installations between now and the end of 2010. This would be on top of Barclays’ previous 850MW estimated for installation in the country this year. Shah believes that demand in Italy could approach ~2GW in 2010.
Shah also believes that the Italian solar market is already at grid parity:
At current solar panel prices, significantly attractive solar insolation levels and relatively high retail electricity prices (Eur 0.25/kWh incl taxes and duties for 3,500 kWh/yr consumption), Italian market is already at grid parity, in our view. Despite achieving grid parity, solar volume growth in Italy is nowhere close to its potential.
