BNEF offers wide-range forecast for global solar demand in 2019

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
With uncertainty over demand in China and the pace of growth expected in many emerging markets, dependent on competitive pricing, BNEF has also forecasted that global solar demand could top 141GW in 2019, a 29% increase over the previous year. Image: JinkoSolar

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has forecasted global solar demand in 2019 could increase by as little as 15% in 2019, reaching 125GW of new installations, up from preliminary forecasted and revised figures of 109GW for 2018.

BNEF had significantly lowered its global solar demand forecast after China’s ‘531 New Deal was announced at the end of May, 2018. 
The halt to utility-scale PV projects and caps on distributed generation (DG) under the new deal was expected to result in China installing 30GW to 35GW in 2018, compared to over 53GW in 2017, according to BNEF at the time. 

As a result, global installs were not expected to reach 2017 levels of 98GW. 

Recent figures issued by China’s solar trade organization China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) put total China installs at 43GW, down only 18%, year-on-year. 

Rapidly falling PV module prices meant demand outside China started to outperform expectations, leading not to an annual decline but a strong rebound to around 109GW in 2018.

BNEF believes the China solar market is still in disarray after stopping support in key sectors, due to a deficit in the renewable energy fund of RMB 150 billion (US$23.4 billion) at the end of 2018.

However, a continued strong decline in PV module ASPs is not expected in 2019, yet has spurred greater demand at lower pricing points to expect regions such as Europe to have increased demand as well as in India, the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey.
 
With uncertainty over demand in China and the pace of growth expected in many emerging markets, dependent on competitive pricing, BNEF has also forecasted that global solar demand could top 141GW in 2019, a 29% increase over the previous year. 

29 November 2022
PV ModuleTech EMEA in Madrid on 29-30 November 2022 will address the factors underpinning the changing PV module landscape, gathering together all the key stakeholders across the value-chain from module production to field testing. Join us for presentations from the leading players in the sector, clearly identifying the opportunities and challenges set to impact module supply to Europe and the Middle-East over the next few years.

Read Next

September 23, 2022
India’s government has approved the second round of the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme to incentivise domestic solar PV module manufacturing.
September 23, 2022
Solar accounted for half of all global power generating capacity added last year, with 182GW deployed, a 25% increase on 2020, according to a report from BloombergNEF (BNEF).
September 22, 2022
Qcells has heightened its commitment to the global solar supply chain as its parent company, Hanwha Solutions, increases investment in clean raw materials.
September 22, 2022
Tech major Amazon has expanded its renewables portfolio globally with 71 new projects with a total capacity of 2.7GW.
September 22, 2022
Wood Mackenzie has repeated warnings that module supply shortages are set to persist until the end of 2023.
September 20, 2022
From module makers and BOS producers to utility-scale developers and community solar companies, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has taken centre stage at this year’s RE+ in Anaheim, California.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
September 27, 2022
15:30 AEST (UTC +10)
Solar Media Events
October 4, 2022
New York, USA
On-Demand Webinars, Solar Media Events
October 11, 2022
Virtual event
Upcoming Webinars
October 18, 2022
10am (EDT) / 4pm (CEST)