China anti-dumping investigation will stabilise polysilicon ASPs

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The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s investigation of anti-dumping and countervailing into US, European and Korean modules will help Chinese polysilicon average selling prices (ASP) to level out in 2013, says market research company EnergyTrend.

Following an increase in the number of time-sensitive orders, as a result of the US investigation into Chinese cells and modules, EnergyTrend said it is optimistic that prices may begin to stabilise at a certain point. Multi-Si wafer ASP dropped this week by around 1.15%, arriving at US$0.863/piece. For the mono-Si wafers, the extent of the price falls have been shrinking due to various manufacturers' halting production.

The mono-Si wafer ASP is currently at US$1.119/piece, a 0.44% decrease. For PV cells and modules, despite the sluggish market transactions, with the help of surging time-sensitive orders and hope of inventory digestion, spot prices have been dropping at a slower rate. PV cell prices have fallen to US$0.36/Watt, a 0.28% decrease. Module prices have remained at US$0.622/watt.

EnergyTrend attributes this “industry clear out effect” to polysilicon spot prices dropping by 2.04% to around US$16.835/kg. With most polysilicon products in the spot market coming from tier 2 manufacturers' inventory, EnergyTrend states that business vendors believe that future prices may begin to decline at a slower rate, and can even stabilize at one point.

Another market research group, IHS iSuppli, reported last month expects installations to grow by 10% annually, with Asian markets – particularly China and Japan – compensating for declining demand from Europe. IHS has forecast that operational module manufacturing capacity will reach 51.9GW in 2013.

IHS is expecting overall global installation markets to pick up again after the first six months of 2013 and then continue to improve over the course of the year.

EnergyTrend advises Chinese manufacturers to turn their attention to Taiwan, another major PV supplying market with the largest production capacity after China. EnergyTrend also advises that business should adopt the inverted pyramid model, empowering employees who are closest to clients with more decision-making power, rather than those traditionally at the top.

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