Steep tariffs on imports of polysilicon entering China from the US and South Korea will have little effect on spot prices in China, according to analysts IHS.
China has imposed levies between 53 and 57% on US imports and 2.4 to 48.7% on South Korean polysilicon, in retaliation for similar charges applied to its PV modules.
Despite the move by China’s Ministry of Commerce last week, prices are not expected to be hugely affected.
“Two factors will mitigate the impact of China’s antidumping action on polysilicon pricing in China,” said Glenn Gu, senior PV analyst at IHS.
“First, the decision leaves open some loopholes that should allow the US and South Korean suppliers to bypass the tariffs. Second, the actual penalties on the South Korean suppliers are expected to be negligible. And because the South Koreans are the major foreign suppliers and competitors for domestic companies in China, these slap-on-the-wrist duties are unlikely to drive up polysilicon pricing very much.”
IHS expects spot prices for polysilicon in China to rise 0.6% in July, 6.6% in August and 2.3% in September.
Domestic polysilicon producers are not expected to increase the price of their own product to any more than CNY140 per kilogram (US$22.8) during the next two months compared to CNY125 (US$20.4) before the tariff was applied.