EnergyTrend: 2014 worldwide demand to hit 42GW, tier one manufacturers to profit

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on email

Analysis firm EnergyTrend has predicted that global market demand for photovoltaics (PV) will total around 42GW in 2014.

The company believes demand will fall between 40GW and 45GW. The latest report also asserts that the supply chain will see industrial concentration continue, with tier one manufacturers likely to once again surpass nameplate capacity. However EnergyTrend believes that of those tier one sales, 10% to 30% will go through second and third tier manufacturer Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM). Supply from the top 15 module manufacturers will represent 65% of total demand worldwide. EnergyTrend forecasts that total utilisation rate will surpass 70% and states that if demand reaches 42GW, “supply chain outlook next year seems positive”.

Based on the 42GW forecast, EnergyTrend also believes that there will be changes in supply and demand, varying from region to region. Supply/demand equilibrium appears to have been reached in the Asia-Pacific markets; there will be supply shortage issues in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region; prices may fall in the US as manufacturers compete for market share with over 30% of US market share controlled by two manufacturers; the Chinese market will continue to be served predominantly by domestic suppliers while in Japan domestic manufacturers are expected to retain around 50% of market share.

EnergyTrend research manager Jason Huang claims that a demand of 42GW would indicate a growth of 17% from 2013 figures. Huang said China, the USA and Japan would remain the top three markets worldwide, and make up 50% of total demand between them. Huang also forecasts that the second half of 2014 will show stronger market demand than the first, in which he nonetheless expects demand to be strong. EnergyTrend predicts that after the first quarter of next year, demand will total around 40GW.

In 2013, the company states that global PV demand rose quarter-on-quarter with grid connected capacity reaching 31.5GW. Due to Chinese and Japanese orders being placed ahead of time, total demand for the year totalled a higher figure, 35.8GW, compared to EnergyTrend’s 2013 prediction of 33GW.

This year, the EMEA region accounted for 32% of demand, the USA 15% and Asia accounted for 53% of demand.

The company points to the falling rates of large-scale utility installations mainly due to subsidy cuts in various regions and states that if the market is to enjoy continual growth, the ability of self-consumption to pick up the slack in demand is “critical”. However, EnergyTrend believes that before self-consumption matures as a market, demand for large-scale installations is likely to diminish. Subsidy reductions in Europe and module tariff reductions in China are also likely to cause further shrinking of the large-scale market. The company also points to the Japanese market in 2013, where the number of orders placed was higher than the amount of grid connected installations and says that if demand falls after the first quarter of next year, demand will substantially decrease. 

Huang said: “It’s projected that industry adjustment will still be required in 2014 as manufacturers have clearer segmentation. Although market demand may not explode, there’s plenty of room for first-tier manufacturers to improve. Meanwhile, a variety of new PV product applications will appear in the markets.”

EnergyTrend also offered a forecast scenario of 50GW demand, although it stressed that this was an outside possibility.

The overall prediction made by EnergyTrend that while demand is likely be in the range of 40GW to 45GW, and most probably around 42GW, with an outside chance of a figure as high as 50GW, is roughly in line with predictions made by fellow analysis firm IHS, which recently predicted a global demand of between 40GW and 45GW. However another analyst firm, NPD Solarbuzz believes that in 2014, PV will be a 50GW global industry. IHS and NPD Solarbuzz have already clashed over their predictions for 2013 installs.

19 August 2021
The utility-scale PV market is poised for exponential growth and yet the industry still has many fundamental opportunities to improve on standards and best practice. Tracker shade loss has been one of those topics that deserve more attention, but has been typically handled by derate factors rather than trying to accurately forecast the loss over the life of the system. Join Nextracker’s subject matter experts, Aron Dobos and Neelesh Umachandran, and Rounak Kharait, director of solar energy assessments at DNV, for a webinar about why shade modeling matters and recommendations on what the solar industry should do about it.
25 August 2021
Energy Next is a new industry exhibition focusing on the latest renewable energy and energy efficiency technology, which will be held for the first time in 2021 in Sydney, Australia alongside the Clean Energy Council’s Australian Clean Energy Summit, the peak gathering of leaders driving Australia's energy transformation. Organised by the same people behind Australia’s largest clean energy event, All-Energy Australia, Energy Next will give visitors two days of access to key suppliers in the industry, free-to-attend professional development and industry workshops, and networking opportunities to better understand clean energy issues and solutions and learn about the latest developments in this transformational, dynamic sector.
25 August 2021
The Intersolar Summit Brasil Nordeste takes place in Fortaleza, Brazil. It addresses leading local and international experts on solar power and renewable energy in the region. The Summit’s mission is to provide in-depth education, enable high-quality networking opportunities, expand the use of PV technologies at regional and national level and strengthen the local PV industry. The Intersolar Summit Brasil Nordeste is organized by Intersolar South America - Latin America’s largest exhibition and conference for the solar industry: Solar Promotion International GmbH, Pforzheim, Freiburg Management and Marketing International GmbH (FMMI) and Aranda Eventos & Congressos Ltda, São Paulo as co-organizer.
25 August 2021
Join us to hear directly from the CTOs and heads-of-research from the top-20 cell/wafer producers to the PV industry today. The event will focus on predicting the key metrics underpinning the next big shift to n-type with answers to the key questions: When will the transition to n-type happen? Which companies will be first to 10 GW capacity and production? Who will be the key equipment suppliers for the new production lines? Which n-type process flow/architecture will emerge as the front-runner? What will polysilicon purity and wafer thickness levels look like for optimized n-type manufacturing? What will the upstream poly/wafer supply-chain look like in 5 years from now?
26 August 2021
In this webinar, JA Solar will present its product portfolio based on the latest technologies to improve your PV projects, ensuring maximum reliability and performance. During the webinar we will receive insight from JA Solar about its solar technology roadmap and how the manufacturer is providing customers with innovative solutions to suit their needs, while we will also analyse how to determine the best product solution for each solar project.
6 September 2021
The 38th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition will be held online from 6 - 10 September 2021, allowing PV experts from all around the globe to participate with just one click! The EU PVSEC is the world's leading forum for PV Research and Development and the biggest Conference on PV Solar Energy worldwide. That is why PV experts from all around the globe are keen on gathering together each year to be part of this specialist’s event, to present and discuss the latest developments in Photovoltaics, to network and to conduct business.

Read Next

PV Tech Premium
July 28, 2021
Amidst a need to scale up solar this decade, PV Tech Premium speaks to Vassilis Papaeconomou, managing director at renewables service provider Alectris, to learn how the solar industry can scale up efficiently, what asset owners and operators need to be aware of when buzzwords such as ‘digitalisation’ and ‘artificial intelligence’ are mentioned, and what the industry might learn from more mature technologies such as wind.
July 28, 2021
The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (NJBPU) has unveiled formal plans to replace its existing solar support framework with a new incentive programme which will support up to 3.75GW of new solar over the next five years.
July 28, 2021
Generating electricity from renewable sources in Europe is now half the price of fossil fuels as polluting power production on the continent fails to recover from the pandemic and renewables grow, according to a new report by the Ember energy thinktank.
July 28, 2021
Solar and storage provider Sunnova, SolarEdge Technologies and National Grid have partnered on a grid stability project in New England, US
July 28, 2021
Two US Senators have introduced a bipartisan energy tax proposal to encourage innovation in the clean energy sector and rapidly scale up new technologies.
July 28, 2021
Chinese inverter manufacturer Sungrow has opened another research and development (R&D) centre in Nanjing, China that will focus on smart technologies, big data and software integration

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
August 19, 2021
At 9am (PT) | 6pm (CEST)
Solar Media Events
August 25, 2021
Solar Media Events
October 6, 2021
Solar Media Events
October 19, 2021