Polysilicon spot prices are expected to test the US$20/kg mark for the first time in over two years in January, 2014, according to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce based in Taiwan.
Tight supply for high-quality polysilicon used for high-efficiency multicrystalline wafers is expected to push ASPs higher, though overall price rises through to solar cells remain muted.
Arthur Hsu, research manager at EnergyTrend said: “After the poly price slightly declined in 2Q13, it started to go upward in 2H13. In fact, ever since the poly price dropped to US$16.32/kg in July, it never got worse than US$16.4/kg.
“The poly price in 4Q13 reached US$17.0/kg and average spot price at the end of 2013 even approached US$18.0/kg. Judging from the average monthly price, the poly spot price rose by 7.2% in 2H13. The average price came to US$17.5/kg in December, 2013 while that in January, 2014 will be US$19.0-20.0/kg.”
EnergyTrend noted that wafer manufacturers had also made price adjustments in the fourth quarter of 2013, with the expectation that ASPs in January would be US$0.98-1.02/piece.
Multicrystalline wafer ASPs were said to have increased by 4.2% in the second half of 2013, though further increases are expected to be pegged at US$0.01/watt.
In the past week the average price was said to be US$0.954/piece, a 3.58% rise, while monocrystalline wafer ASPs were said to have increased to US$1.154/piece, a 0.52% rise.
With respect to multicrystalline solar cells, ASPs in the last week have been US$0.389/watt, a 0.26% rise, while PV modules stood at US$0.66/watt, a 0.15% drop, according to EnergyTrend.