According to market research firm, Gartner, there is a growing disconnect between PV module manufacturers claiming a ‘sold-out’ situation and running at full capacity and the actual PV module manufacturing supply. Gartner claims there are approximately 20-24GW of actual PV module manufacturing supply, but are forecasting PV installations should reach slightly more than 11GW in 2010. As something does not add up properly, Gartner is concerned that the supply and demand balance is wrong.
The market research firm believes that in 2011 the problem should come home to roost for all PV vendors. Average selling prices for PV modules in 2011 should decrease by more than 15% because of excess capacity and slower growth in the core European markets.
Gartner also expects buyers will favour premium suppliers, as project developers will have more choices for sources of PV modules.
Gartner also noted that it sees that approximately 34GW of nameplate capacity currently exists within the industry.