A bullish projection from Solarbuzz points to the PV market growing 5% in 2009, reaching 6.37GW, which has been spurred by the significant increase in expected installations in Germany. The market research firm expects German installations to top 3.2GW in 2009, noting that the third quarter demand reached 980MW and is projected to rise to 1680MW in fourth quarter, resulting in an increase of 71.4%.
“The continuation of uninterrupted PV market growth year on year hides huge changes in the distribution of country market demand in Europe. Policy adjustment in Spain removed 42% of the global PV market in the fourth quarter of 2008 and it took until the middle of 2009 for the powerful engine of the German market to replace that lost contribution, and to now exceed it,” said Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz LLC. “This had the effect of massively realigning economics through the PV chain during the past year, while also setting enormous commercial challenges for companies operating within it. However, after adjusting to the new global low pricing environment, the market data confirms that the PV industry is now delivering substantial growth in the second half of 2009. What is more, the outlook for the first quarter 2010 demonstrates a distinct change from the first quarter in past years, when seasonal factors have typically caused a sharp decrease.”
According to Solarbuzz, Italy, Belgium, France and the Czech Republic together accounted for 277MW in third quarter 2009, which translated into a total European demand of 1.3 GW in the third quarter and is expected to rise by 63% to 2.2 GW in the fourth quarter.
Third quarter demand In North America, demand was up 26% on the second quarter and will increase 54% over 2008 accounting for 556MW of installations in 2009, or 9% of the world market.
Global end-market PV industry revenues were said to be US$11.2 billion in third quarter 2009, up 62% on second quarter.