The massive late surge in solar module installations in Germany in 2009 has meant that the global PV market increased 20% over 2008, according to revised figures from Solarbuzz. According to the market research firm, installations reached 7.3GW last year an increase of 0.87GW on its previous market forecast. With only preliminary figures released by the German Federal Network Agency as well as for other important markets such as Italy, further revisions upwards should not be ruled out.
According to Solarbuzz, as the German market closes in on a 4GW figure for 2009 and running well ahead of the 2.5-3.5 GW per annum path specified in the currently proposed amendment to the Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG), further tariff cuts could be on the cards.
“The current EEG policy amendment is based on a target market range that will be overshot by a large margin in 2010, so the Government may yet choose to cut back tariffs mid-year even more aggressively than currently planned.” said Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz, a division of The NPD Group. “Even without such revision, the PV industry will need to plan on a major re-balancing of global supply and demand in both mid-2010 and the start of 2011, worse than occurred from the policy adjustment in Spain in 2008.”
The market research firm said that Germany now accounted for 63% of global demand in fourth quarter of 2009, a record high. At 3.73GW it was more than seven times larger than in the first quarter of 2009, following massive growth in European demand through the year.
Solarbuzz had only recently said that PV installations had reached 6.43GW in 2009, representing and increase of 6% over the previous year.