Global solar demand in 2015 to hit 57GW on strong 30% growth rate – IHS

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

Market research firm IHS has revised down global solar PV installations for 2014 but forecasts significant increase in demand for 2015. 

According to IHS, global solar PV installations in 2014 reached 44.2GW, compared to its last published forecast of installs reaching 45.1 GW, a 14% increase over 2013. 

One of the reasons for the lower than expected installs in 2014 was the decline in demand within European countries, despite record installs in the UK that made it the biggest market in Europe for the first time. 

IHS said that European solar demand in 2014 declined by 30% to 7.9GW. 

In contrast, the largest absolute growth was said to have occurred in the APAC region, which was said to have increased by 5.5GW to reach 26.4GW in 2014 and accounted for 60% of total global demand. China and Japan were the two largest markets in 2014. 

China chimes

IHS importantly noted that based on its project analysis, China installed 12.6GW of new solar capacity in 2014. 

The market research firm said that that the official estimate from China's NEA of 10.6GW represented the sum of PV projects connected to the grid but in AC terms. 

However, IHS market data is logged on actual installations and in DC terms. Numerous media reports and several market reports have taken the NEA figures for China at face value. 

Bullish on US

In contrast to installation figures recently published by GTM/SEIA that indicated US demand reached 6.2GW in 2014, lower than previous guidance, IHS said that US solar PV installations reached 7GW in 2014. 

Key 2015 forecast data 

According to IHS global PV market demand is set to increase by 30% in 2015 to 57.3GW, doubling growth of 14% in 2014, which it said was based on a bottom-up analysis of more than 100 countries. The tracker is the first combined forecast from IHS and Solarbuzz, which it acquired in November 2014.

IHS noted that it had raised its demand forecast for China in 2015 to 17.3GW and lower than China’s NEA guidance for connected AC capacity by province, yet China remains the largest market by some margin. 

IHS also forecasted that Japan would retain its position as the second largest solar market in 2015 with installations reaching 10.4GW, an increase of 4%, compared to 2014. 

The third largest market is expected to be the US with installations exceeding 9GW in 2015. 

A welcome surprise in the preliminary forecasts from IHS is that the UK is expected to become the fourth largest market in 2015. IHS noted that it expects 3.5GW of installations in the UK in 2015, driven largely by the rush to beat the ROC deadline at the end of March 2015. UK installs reached around 2.3GW in 2014. 

In regards to the European market, IHS said that a rebound in demand was expected in 2015, noting that installs were forecasted to reach 9.4GW. 

Longer-term growth 

According to IHS, PV installations are forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% over the next five years to reach 73GW in 2019. 

However, IHS has cut its forecast for global PV installations by 1.5GW in 2018, which it said was due mainly to a 3GW reduction in its outlook for the European market. IHS still forecasts more than 50 GW of new PV capacity to be installed in Europe over the next five years. 

However, strong demand momentum in APAC was said to partly offset the lowered European demand forecast, according to IHS.

Market confusion

Preliminary market demand reports from the likes of EPIA and the International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power System Programme (IEA PVPS) claim installations reached 40GW and 38.7GW, respectively, up moderately from around 37GW in 2013. 

Both are using China’s NEA figures of grid connections in the largest market reaching 10.6GW in 2014. 

In contrast, IHS has installations in China reaching 12.6GW in 2014 and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) recently raised its 2014 figure to 13GW.

11 October 2022
RE+ Florida returns in 2022. Solar & Energy Storage Florida is now RE+ Florida! This premier event for the Sunshine State will return October 11-12, 2022 in Miami.
11 October 2022
PV CellTech Extra will be held as a series of live webinars and on-demand sessions on 11-13 October 2022. We'll be taking a slightly further forward-looking view at the technologies and roadmaps for new cell architectures set to dominate mass production during 2023-2025 with special emphasis on the potential timelines for technologies beyond the single-junction cell design, including perovskite and hybrid concepts.
13 October 2022
The 2022 ACORE Grid Forum is a one-day event that convenes regulators, renewable, storage and transmission companies, and other leading grid experts in Washington, D.C. Speakers will examine the roles of administrative orders and actions, infrastructure policy, regional and state developments, and private sector strategies on the path to a carbon-free grid.
18 October 2022
The solar, storage and EV industries in the UK are going from strength to strength. There is no better place for the community to meet, share ideas and do business than Solar & Storage Live from 18-20 October at the NEC. There’s something for everyone; more than 150 exhibitors, a high-level conference, a start up and innovation zone, a poster zone, strategic partners to network with and much more. 
18 October 2022
The global PV market is entering a new era at unprecedented speed. The demand for high-power PV modules has soared, while interest in the future direction of solar technologies has intensified. Tongwei wants to create discussions between EPC companies, investors, and distributors, especially in Europe, which the company sees as a key growth market. Understanding the opinions and needs of clients in terms of shingled or N-type technology, as well as larger module size, is vital to Tongwei’s success in Europe and beyond. In this PV Tech TechTalk webinar, experts from TÜV NORD and Tongwei's CTO will discuss the risk analysis and reliability of the company’s shingled module technology and its applicability to different European markets.
26 October 2022
All-Energy Australia is the country's largest and most anticipated clean energy event in Australia, which opens up a world of opportunities for industry suppliers and experts as well as those involved in renewable energy and energy storage sectors to expand business networks. Featuring more than 250 suppliers and attracting more than 10,000 industry professionals, All-Energy Australia is a must-attend event in the industry's calendar. Be part of this free-to-attend exhibition and conference from 26-27 October 2022 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Read Next

October 6, 2022
Voltalia has signed a corporate power purchase agreement with mining company Richard Bay Minerals, subsidiary of Rio Tinto, in South Africa.
October 6, 2022
Portuguese utility EDP Renewables (EDPR) has completed the acquisition of a 70% stake in German solar developer Kronos Solar Projects.
October 6, 2022
The US Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have requested stakeholder input on the climate and clean energy tax incentives included in the country’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
October 6, 2022
Waaree Energies has raised US$120 million from investors to expand its module and cell production capacity in India.
October 6, 2022
Around 35GW of PV manufacturing in Europe is at risk of being mothballed as elevated power prices damage the continent’s efforts to build a solar supply chain, research from Rystad Energy suggests.
October 6, 2022
Canadian energy company Suncor Energy has reached an agreement to sell its solar and wind assets to Canadian Utilities, an ATCO subsidiary, for C$730 million (US$535 million).

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

On-Demand Webinars, Solar Media Events
October 11, 2022
Virtual event
Upcoming Webinars
October 18, 2022
10am (EDT) / 4pm (CEST)
Solar Media Events
November 29, 2022
Malaga, Spain