IHS Markit forecasts global solar demand to increase 11% in 2018 despite China cuts

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email
According to market research firm IHS Markit, solar PV installations in 2018 are expected to reach 105GW, an 11% increase over the prior year when installations topped over 96GW, despite an expected decline in China, due to the sudden capping of growth by new government policies. Image: Panda Green

According to market research firm IHS Markit, solar PV installations in 2018 are expected to reach 105GW, an 11% increase over the prior year when installations topped over 96GW, despite an expected decline in China, due to the sudden capping of growth by new government policies. 

IHS Markit noted that its outlook for global PV installations in 2018 has fallen from 113GW to 105 GW, directly due to the expected drop in installations as caps were imposed on utility-scale and distributed generation (DG) projects, the two biggest market sectors in the country.

The market research firm is forecasting installations in China will reach 38GW in 2018, down from over 53GW in 2017. Other market research firms are guiding 30GW to 35GW in China after the policy changes. 

The significant impact in installations in China is expected to occur in the second half of 2018 and amount to less than half the number installed in the first half of the year, according to IHS Markit.

Supply chain impact

IHS Markit expects the whole PV supply chain will be impacted by curtailment in China, which will result in a “fiercely competitive environment in international markets, which will lead to aggressive price reductions across the board.”

However, avoiding forecasting module ASP decline’s such as Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), IHS Markit said: “At this early stage, the concept of an ‘average’ price is somewhat meaningless. The final price level will not only depend on China’s recent decision, but it will also be influenced by developments around the Minimum Imported Price (MIP) in Europe and India’s decisions surrounding safeguard duties and the anti-dumping investigation.”

The market research firm summarized the market going forward in 2018 as being “defined by overproduction and intense competition among suppliers.”

“Once these lower prices are settled, and the industry has gone through another wave of oversupply, low profitability and consolidation, solar energy will become even more competitive across new markets.”

Read Next

July 29, 2021
Tracker and racking provider Arctech has delivered SkySmart II tracking system to a 575MW agriculture-sharing solar project located in Nangong City, Hebei Province, China.
July 23, 2021
China could install up to 65GW of solar this year, driven largely by a surge in demand for distributed solar installations, while average solar deployment could reach 90GW per year in the years leading up to 2025.
July 21, 2021
At least 455GW of new solar PV capacity will need to be installed each year by the end of this decade for the world to reach net zero status by 2050, new analysis by BloombergNEF (BNEF) has found.
July 16, 2021
Finlay Colville, head of market research at PV Tech Research, explores the critical themes behind the solar industry’s transition from p-type to n-type cell production before previewing PV CellTech Online 2021.
July 15, 2021
Legislation that would ban the import of all products from China’s Xinjiang region into the US has taken a critical step forward, passing the US Senate.
July 13, 2021
Solar PV capacity in Asia Pacific could triple to 1,500GW by 2030, with China driving deployment and Indonesia set to be the region’s fastest-growing market, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
August 19, 2021
At 9am (PT) | 6pm (CEST)
Solar Media Events
August 25, 2021
Solar Media Events
October 6, 2021
Solar Media Events
October 19, 2021
BRISTOL, UK