A long winter and weak demand following feed-in tariff cuts implemented at the beginning of the year could lead to statutory FiT cuts in June to be in the 3-6% range, according to Jeffries International. Official German EEG installations figures for January, 2011 highlight a 77% decline from installation figures for December 2010, with 95% of system installations below the 200kW class.
In a research note to investor clients, Jeffries analysts noted:
‘Checks with participants have warned of a slow to 2011 and a weak 1Q11. The market is only now starting to show some signs of picking up. We argue the slow start will lead to a low than expected cut in the German FiT once data for the March-May is available to set the mid-year cut. Currently we look for a cut at the end of June in the 3-6% range according to the benchmarks set by the regulator.’
According to the new EEG figures, Germany installed 266MW of PV systems in January 2011, up from 222MW in the same month a year-ago.