Jefferies report: Solar dumping trends spell bad news for US manufacturers

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on email

Higher module prices and lower demand will ensue for US-based cell and module manufacturers if countervailing duties are imposed in March 2012, according to a report by investment bank, Jefferies. US companies, already undergoing financial difficulties given the market slowdown, will be greatly affected by the action, which could spell good times ahead for Taiwanese cell suppliers as Chinese module manufacturers attempt to dodge the stipulations of the countervailing duties by making their modules in other countries.

Ed Lebow, head of the international trade practice at Haynes and Boone LLP and previously, principal author of the ITC’s regulations implementing the anti-dumping and countervailing duty laws, was quizzed on the possible repercussions of a conference call organised by Jefferies for investors in the sector. Mr. Lebow has had several years of experience serving as Assistant General Counsel of the US International Trade Commission, representing both foreign and domestic companies over the years.

According to Lebow, it looks likely that Taiwanese cell suppliers and companies such as First Solar – a major competitor of Chinese moduling companies – will benefit from the action. Although thin-film companies have been excluded from the “industry definition”, the Jeffries investor note from the call concluded that: “the ITC is more likely to include thin film in its analysis than any upstream or downstream businesses.”

The research note states, based on Lebow’s projections, that: “[a]ny non-Chinese OEMs like SunPower and Suniva would benefit, but to a lesser degree because FSLR remains the cost leader. SolarWorld may see backlash as US developers and installers are hurt by this scorched Earth approach.”

Chinese manufacturers will also feel the heat: although some companies will be given duty rates on a case-by-case basis, those smaller-scale manufacturers will be given a weighted average duty of those companies under investigation.

The Commerce Department will likely issue preliminary countervailing duty deposit rates to imports five months after the initial petition was filed – probably in March 2012. The ensuing timescale will see a preliminary dumping decision being made in May – at this juncture, those most culpable for the importing actions will be required to post cash deposits based on estimated duty. Final rulings on the issue will be made around November/December 2012.

28 July 2021
LONGi has launched its Hi-MO N module, the company's first bifacial module with N-type TOPCon cells, designed to deliver ultra- high value and lower LCOE to utility-scale PV power plants. This PV TechTalk Product Series webinar will provide an overview of the module’s technology and how the introduction of n-type technologies will provide efficiency and performance gains for solar project developers.
29 July 2021
This free webinar will explore the ongoing opportunities in the UK solar PV market, looking at global technology trends and how they apply to the UK. Join us for an overview of the project pipeline and forecast for deployment over the coming years. We'll be looking at the types of modules available and being used in the UK and presenting a case study on the deployment of bifacial modules in this market.
19 August 2021
The utility-scale PV market is poised for exponential growth and yet the industry still has many fundamental opportunities to improve on standards and best practice. Tracker shade loss has been one of those topics that deserve more attention, but has been typically handled by derate factors rather than trying to accurately forecast the loss over the life of the system. Join Nextracker’s subject matter experts, Aron Dobos and Neelesh Umachandran, and Rounak Kharait, director of solar energy assessments at DNV, for a webinar about why shade modeling matters and recommendations on what the solar industry should do about it.
25 August 2021
Energy Next is a new industry exhibition focusing on the latest renewable energy and energy efficiency technology, which will be held for the first time in 2021 in Sydney, Australia alongside the Clean Energy Council’s Australian Clean Energy Summit, the peak gathering of leaders driving Australia's energy transformation. Organised by the same people behind Australia’s largest clean energy event, All-Energy Australia, Energy Next will give visitors two days of access to key suppliers in the industry, free-to-attend professional development and industry workshops, and networking opportunities to better understand clean energy issues and solutions and learn about the latest developments in this transformational, dynamic sector.
25 August 2021
The Intersolar Summit Brasil Nordeste takes place in Fortaleza, Brazil. It addresses leading local and international experts on solar power and renewable energy in the region. The Summit’s mission is to provide in-depth education, enable high-quality networking opportunities, expand the use of PV technologies at regional and national level and strengthen the local PV industry. The Intersolar Summit Brasil Nordeste is organized by Intersolar South America - Latin America’s largest exhibition and conference for the solar industry: Solar Promotion International GmbH, Pforzheim, Freiburg Management and Marketing International GmbH (FMMI) and Aranda Eventos & Congressos Ltda, São Paulo as co-organizer.
25 August 2021
Join us to hear directly from the CTOs and heads-of-research from the top-20 cell/wafer producers to the PV industry today. The event will focus on predicting the key metrics underpinning the next big shift to n-type with answers to the key questions: When will the transition to n-type happen? Which companies will be first to 10 GW capacity and production? Who will be the key equipment suppliers for the new production lines? Which n-type process flow/architecture will emerge as the front-runner? What will polysilicon purity and wafer thickness levels look like for optimized n-type manufacturing? What will the upstream poly/wafer supply-chain look like in 5 years from now?

Read Next

July 26, 2021
A solar-wind-energy storage hybrid project is to power a Madagascan mine after Rio Tinto signed a power purchase agreement with independent power producer CrossBoundary Energy.
July 26, 2021
The pace of climate action in the US is “wholly unacceptable”, according to the director of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programme Office
July 26, 2021
Support for distributed energy resources (DERs) like rooftop solar, community solar and battery storage could save Californian ratepayers US$120 billion over the next 30 years, according to a new report
July 26, 2021
Oil and gas giant Eni has acquired 1.2GW of Spanish renewables from Madrid-based European private equity manager Azora.
PV Tech Premium
July 26, 2021
Boris Farnung and Keith Punzalan of VDE and David Moser of EURAC’s Institute for Renewable Energy take a look at the positive impact comprehensive quality assurance measures can have on the early stage of a project’s lifespan, exploring yield assessments, LCOE projections and the critical need for high quality components.
July 26, 2021
US utility giant NextEra Energy added 1.84GW of renewables and energy storage projects to its backlog in Q2 2021, but its Energy Resources division reported a fiscal loss of US$315 million.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events, Upcoming Webinars
July 29, 2021
Upcoming Webinars
August 19, 2021
At 9am (PT) | 6pm (CEST)
Solar Media Events
August 25, 2021
Solar Media Events, Upcoming Webinars
October 6, 2021