Photovoltaic (PV) prices are set to increase by 9% in 2014, according to a new report produced by GTM Research. The predictions were published in PV Pricing Outlook 2014: Value Chain Trends, Global Drivers and Regional Dynamics, which analyses pricing both by geographical regions and materials.
The 9% cost increase covers the entire upstream PV value chain of polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules, adjusted for volume.
GTM Research asserts that despite the expected increase in prices in the PV supply chain, geographic regional pricing differences will actually drive overall module prices down by 1%.
GTM Research analyst Jade Jones highlighted the difference in pricing between India and Japan being at around 30%, as an example. The report also claims that going beyond 2015, low cost markets including India, Chile and China are likely to see module pricing costs fall to below US$0.50 per Watt by 2017, with China expected to be the first to see Tier-One manufacturers’ costs fall below that price.
A recent report by rival analysis firm NPD Solarbuzz revealed that average selling price for Chinese suppliers has stayed at around US$0.63 per watt, with Jinko Solar expected to be the first Chinese firm to hit blended costs per Watt for silicon and non-silicon modules of US$0.50.
The 9% increase is expected to come as a consequence of China, the US and Japan supporting the end market, with blended polysilicon prices expected to rise by up to 25% during the year, wafer prices to rise by 11% and cell prices by 5%.
According to GTM Research, the report looked, over multiple scenarios and outcomes at near and long term pricing forecasts. The report identifies key pricing drivers including supply-demand balance, supplier costs and the influence on pricing trends of geopolitical factors.