NPD Solarbuzz expects explosive growth of 49GW for Solar PV industry in 2014

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email

According to NPD Solarbuzz, the PV industry has reached a tipping point that will propel the sector to an unprecedented demand in 2014.

The market research firm has raised its recently issued bullish forecast with demand reaching 49GW in 2014, compared to a range of 45GW to 55GW.

“The solar PV industry has reached a critical tipping point, with end-market demand hitting record levels almost every quarter,” noted Finlay Colville, vice-president at NPD Solarbuzz. “This growth is being driven by leading module suppliers and project developers that returned to profitability during 2013, and which have now established highly-effective global sales and marketing networks.”

NPD Solarbuzz also said that it expected PV demand in 2013 to have hit 36GW, with the fourth quarter exceeding the 12GW for the first time ever.

The record demand in the fourth quarter was said to be driven by China, Japan, and the US, accounting for two-thirds of all solar modules installed in the quarter.

The explosive growth is set to continue into the first quarter of 2014, which will also be a new record for the PV industry for a first quarter that has historically been a slow quarter due to weather conditions in the once dominant European market. 

The market research expects strong growth throughout 2014, forecasting that between October 2013 to March 2014, PV installations will reach almost 22GW.

Putting that in perspective, NPD Solarbuzz said that such a level of installations is greater than all installations between 2005 and 2009, globally. The expected 22GW of demand is equivalent to 120MW of PV installations every day for six months, equating to one new 5MW solar farm being completed every hour of the day!

The market research firm noted that the 49GW of end-market demand next year will push production utilization rates above 90 percent for tier-1 manufacturers, while pushing many to increase production outsourcing from wafers, cells and through to modules.

“Manufacturing over-capacity and pricing erosion within the PV industry was previously a key factor in limiting annual growth to between 10-20 percent between 2011 and 2013,” added Colville. “With a more stable pricing environment and the prospects of increased end-market globalization, NPD Solarbuzz forecasts a return to annual growth above 30 percent for the PV industry in 2014.”

NPD Solarbuzz also expects leading Chinese c-Si module suppliers will have reached silicon and non-silicon costs below US$0.50 per watt, while prices remain stable, leading to confidence from profitability to enter a new capacity expansion phase that has been on hold now for 18 months.

Recent forecasts from Deutsche Bank and Yingli Green both suggested significant demand existed in 2014 that could reach 50GW.
However, in contrast to the Deutsche Bank, Yingli Green and NPD Solarbuzz camp, IHS, Mercom Capital and EnergyTrend have also released recent forecasts that signify only moderate growth from 2013 within a range of 40GW to 43GW.

As far as NPD Solarbuzz is concerned, the continued cost reductions, coupled to a major downstream move by tier 1 manufacturers and established project developers and PVEP’s (PV energy providers) is creating its own demand dynamics through aggressive downstream sales teams.

The momentum of gaining access to low-cost finance for PV projects via securitization and other financial vehicles could also be a key contribution to the expected explosive growth next year.

26 January 2022
Join this free webinar for our analysis of the growth of N-Type technology including; new capacity expansions and production output. We'll also be looking at the global manufacturing footprint with forecasts on how much product will be made outside of China this year and which companies are driving technology change across the crystalline silicon value chain.
23 February 2022
Held annually since 2016, the Energy Storage Summit Europe is the place to be for senior stakeholders in the European storage industry. Designed to accelerate deployment of storage, we examine evolving chemistries, business models, project design, revenue stacks and use cases for storage. The 2022 edition will include exclusive content around longer duration solutions, energy strategies for wide-scale deployment of EVs and "EnTech", the event which sits at the intersection of digitisation, decentralisation and decarbonation of the power system. Come to meet TSOs, DSOs, Utilities, Developers, Investors and Lenders and leave with new contacts, partners and a wealth of information.
7 March 2022
Take your chance to join the most powerful platform in the MENA region. Middle East Energy (MEE), Intersolar, and ees, the leading energy exhibitions are joining hands to co-deliver an outstanding renewables and energy storage event at Middle East Energy 2021. Renewables and energy storage at MEE is the largest gathering of solar and renewable energy industry professionals in the Middle East & Africa, offering the most effective trade focused platform to international manufacturers and distributors looking to meet regional buyers.
8 March 2022
As Solar Finance & Investment enters its ninth year, we sit on the cusp of a new power market with solar at its heart. The 2022 edition of the event will build on our years of expertise and relationships to bring investors and lenders together with top developers. Connect with leaders in the field and use exclusive insights to drive investment and development decisions for the future. Meet new and existing project partners at the largest gathering of European solar investors and lenders.
23 March 2022
When it comes to storage, the US market exceeded a gigawatt of advanced energy storage installations (weighted towards lithium ion) at 1.46 GW, more than the previous six years in total! An exponential growth rate could see the market hit 7.5 GW p.a. by 2025. The summit will provide a wealth of content around this vital piece in the US power puzzle, with sessions dedicated to explore how companies are making money from batteries, the latest chemistries and their applications as they apply to different use-cases. We ask how investors can match ESG criteria to batteries and we will bring case studies of successful deployment and project execution onto the stage to examine how you can ensure your own projects are successful.
29 March 2022
Now in its 10th sell-out year, Large Scale Solar returns to Lisbon in 2022. We are excited to gather together face-to-face with the European solar industry as we provide unique and exclusive access to a powerful selection of the market's key stakeholders. Join this elite summit to find out how the market is maturing, which new markets are becoming more exciting, how technology is evolving and who's driving the market forward into the 2020s. Always senior, packed with developers, EPCs, utilities and investors this is the event for companies serious about European solar PV.

Read Next

January 19, 2022
Chinese inverter manufacturer Sungrow has launched its new "1+X" central modular inverter with an output of 1.1MW at the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi.
January 19, 2022
Innovative Solar Systems (ISS), a utility-scale solar developer with a 12GW pipeline, has put itself up for sale, as it seeks partners to support the company in its development of ever larger PV projects across the US.
PV Tech Premium
January 19, 2022
Latin America is fast becoming a lucrative solar market as countries ramp up deployment efforts. In this context, Colombia and Panama stand out as key markets to look out for, MPC Energy Solutions' CEO tells PV Tech Premium
January 19, 2022
US solar developer 8minute Solar Energy has closed US$400 million in financing from institutional investor EIG to bolster its US solar PV and energy storage pipeline.
January 19, 2022
Renewables developer R.Power has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with energy trader Axpo for nearly 300MWp of solar in Poland.
January 19, 2022
Energy major Shell has acquired 100% of PV project developer Solar-Konzept Italia (SKI), taking its solar development pipeline in Italy to around 2GW in the process.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
January 26, 2022
Free Webinar
Solar Media Events
February 23, 2022
London, UK
Solar Media Events
March 8, 2022
London, UK
Solar Media Events
March 23, 2022
Austin, Texas, USA
Solar Media Events
March 29, 2022
Lisbon, Portugal