U.S. solar market to top 440MW in ’09, says GTM Research: 50% annual growth through 2012


Despite the global recession and the particular impact this has had on the U.S. economy in 2009, GTM Research has forecasted record PV installations of 440MW this year, compared with 320MW in 2008. Significant growth is projected through 2012 with annual installed growth rates of 50%, reaching over 2GW of installations in 2012 alone. The market research firm expects ‘second-tier’ states will soon emerge to diversify the U.S. market out of California (50% of demand), leading to 50,000 new jobs and over US$6.1 billion in annual investments for the sector.

“California will remain the largest PV market in the country, but downstream success is contingent on competing in the five to seven second-tier demand states that will emerge by 2012, each supporting over 40MW of annual demand,” noted Shayle Kann, Energy Analyst at GTM Research and co-author of the report.

However, the market research firm warned that the complex mix of incentives and regulations that govern growth in these new state markets had to be understood to gain a clear picture of demand capabilities. The report noted that by 2012, second tier states such as Arizona, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada and Massachusetts will reach an installed capacity of 376MW.

GTM Research expects the residential and utility-scale sectors to lead demand, which have taken advantage of incentives in the new Recovery Act of 2008. Funding from the 2009 Stimulus Package (ARRA) will also support market expansion, especially for public sector projects.

Utility-scale installations will be the fastest growing market segment, reaching 466MW in the 2012 base-case scenario with 56% annual growth rates. In the reports ‘upside scenario,’ total investment reaches US$8.17 billion in 2012 at an average annual rate of 41.1%. This is due in part to renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements as well as a result of enhanced interest in utility ownership of PV power projects.

In the residential sector, GTM Research expects new financing models that reduce the dependence of private ownership of solar systems to gain momentum, could lead to the residential sector to grow to 363MW by 2012 in a base case scenario.

Over the next four years, the U.S. will experience the most rapid demand growth of any major PV market, surpassing Spain to become the second leading PV market in the world behind Germany.

23 August 2022
Intersolar South America, South America’s largest exhibition and conference for the solar industry, takes place at the Expo Center Norte in São Paulo, Brazil, on August 23–25, 2022, and has a focus on the areas of photovoltaics, PV production and solar thermal technologies. At the accompanying Intersolar South America Conference, renowned experts shed light on hot topics in the solar industry. In 2021 – despite the Covid-19 pandemic – Intersolar South America welcomed more than 28,000 visitors and over 1,000 conference attendees over 3 days. 200+ providers showcased their products. Combining local and international expertise, Intersolar South America brings together the PV and solar thermal sector to discuss the current status and strategic trends for Latin American PV markets, as well as technology innovations and new business opportunities. Overall, distributed generation is still driving momentum in the Brazilian market. Get 10% off with code 38LCF6KN
6 September 2022
Intersolar Mexico sits at the cross-section of photovoltaics, solar heating & cooling technologies, and energy storage. The event serves as the industry’s go-to source for invaluable technology trends and premier B2B contacts in the promising Mexican solar market. From September 6–8, 2022 Intersolar Mexico together with the co-located The GREEN Expo® and Aquatech Mexico will take place in Centro Citibanamex, Mexico City.
7 September 2022
The demand for rooftop solar PV is soaring, driven by falling costs of the technology against energy crises that are gripping countries globally. But while an increasing number of households turn to solar to generate their own electricity, there is now a need for more specialist equipment, technologies and services to ensure the solar transition can reach as many customers as possible. Delivering these is now a major challenge for rooftop solar installers. This webinar will analyse the characteristics of the rooftop solar market, discussing how the products, logistics, installation and servicing of solar systems has evolved in line with consumer demands.
14 September 2022
Join us in London for 2 days as we look at the UK’s new landscape for utility & rooftop solar. Understand the new opportunities within this GW-plus annual market!
15 September 2022
Bifacial PV modules will be the dominant solar PV technology globally within one or two years; in the utility-scale sector, their market share is already above 70%. This webinar will provide a clear view on the successful implementation of bifacial technology, maximizing system performance and minimising LCoE.
19 September 2022
RE+ 2022 is the umbrella event that includes SPI, ESI, RE+ Power, and RE+ Infrastructure. As North America's largest renewable energy event, it's a catalyst for industry innovation that's supercharging business growth in the clean energy economy.

Read Next

August 11, 2022
US solar tracker supplier Array Technologies has bounced back from a difficult 2021 by posting strong Q2 2022 financial results mainly due to its acquisition of STI Norland, while upcoming tailwinds could buoy its performance further still moving through the year.
August 10, 2022
Canadian Solar plans to build an integrated PV manufacturing plant in Western China, with a capacity of 200,000MT of high-purity polysilicon, 10GW of both cells and modules and multi-GW productions of raw and auxiliary materials.
August 10, 2022
Iberdrola has commissioned the 590MW 'Francisco Pizarro' PV project in Extremadura Southwestern Spain, which is Europe’s largest solar plant.
PV Tech Premium
August 10, 2022
PV Tech Premium looks at the main drivers that drove solar PV in Chile in the last years and has risen as one of the leaders in the region.
August 10, 2022
OMERS Private Equity has acquired a minority stake in the Arizona-headquartered solar operations & maintenance (O&M) provider NovaSource Power Services.
August 10, 2022
A solar PV module frame made of recycled roll-formed steel has outperformed conventional aluminium frames in testing by an independent third party.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
September 7, 2022
15:30 AEST (UTC +10)
Solar Media Events
September 14, 2022
Solar Media Events
October 4, 2022
New York, USA
Solar Media Events
October 11, 2022
Virtual event