US solar capacity to total 50GW by end of 2016, says Deutsche Bank

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email

A team led by Vishal Shah at Deutsche Bank has predicted there will be nearly 50GW of installed solar capacity in the USA by 2017, with 20 to 30GW of installed distributed generation expected to be one of the key drivers for growth.

According to NPD Solarbuzz the installed capacity in the US, as of July 2013, was 10GW.

The September Deutsche Bank research note also predicted a rush of installations ahead of the reduction in investment tax credit (ITC) which will take place in 2016.

The analysis is based on levelised cost of energy (LCOE), gross lifetime cost of system and lifetime electricity production, with ITC inclusion also factored in.

The report asserts that grid parity has already been attained in 10 US states as system costs of solar have fallen below US$3 per Watt. Hawaii and California lead tables of states at or near grid parity in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.

In 2016, when ITCs will still be at the 30% level, Shah expects up to 47 states to have attained grid parity, however, when the ITC is reduced to 10% this figure could drop to 36, which still represents 70% of the total number of states.

According to the forecast, despite rising interest rates, costs will continue to fall. Financing models such as 'yieldcos', where companies put liquid assets into an operational or nearly operational project thus reaping tax benefits across the entire organisation, and strong demand from Japan and China, will, in Shah’s view, offset interest rate rises. Shah predicts that the use of yieldco structures could lower costs of financing projects by as much as 200 to 300 basis points and provide liquidity.

Of the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, residential solar power still has the most markets at grid parity, followed by commercial. Industrial still has the furthest distance to go to attain grid parity.

The report’s finding conclude that US installation rates are expected to continue to rise, with a rush of activity pre-ITC reduction in 2016. According to the report, 2015 is expected to mark an inflection point for solar power in the USA.

11 May 2021
Join this Talesun Solar webinar focused on providing an insight into the company’s next-generation series of large-area, high-efficiency PERC (Passivated Emitter Rear Cell) modules. These are available in both monofacial (‘BiStar’) and bifacial (‘BiPro’) formats, using 182mm half-cut cells in 144 and 156 cell configurations and provide up to 590Wp performance with efficiencies of up to 21.2%.
11 May 2021
Green Hydrogen: always the future never the now? Join us on 11-12 & 18-19 May for a fresh look at what’s fast becoming a reality. Governments across the world have put hydrogen at the centre of their decarbonisation plans with billions of dollars allocated to stimulating the market and whilst individual strategies will differ, the theme is the same: green hydrogen is the fuel of the future. Its role goes beyond energy use and there is already an active off-take market. From the perspective of renewable generators, hydrogen can play a pivotal role in enabling unsubsidised projects to work in a low power price environment and provide another business model in areas where the grid is congested. Hydrogen could also be the driver of a new wave of renewable installations as countries’ hydrogen plans hinge on new capacity being available.
26 May 2021
Tara Doyle and Tristan Erion-Lorico of PV Evolution Labs (PVEL), will share this year’s top-performing modules and discuss key findings from PVEL’s PQP testing. Join us to explore which find out which new Top Performer category can affect project value by more than $100,000 – and which test resulted in >20% degradation.
15 June 2021
Looking at the drivers and dynamics of utility scale solar in the UK over the next five years. This event will consider the immediate challenges as we enter the build phase in the UK market where we could see as much as 3GW deployed in 2021 alone! What developments will continue the growth of 100MW+ sites and what impact will government policy have on the rate of deployment in the UK? Join leading developers and manufacturers shaping the direction of one of Europe’s most active markets and hear from speakers with a history of influencing innovation and change.
6 July 2021
Explore in depth the opportunities of the different countries via case studies, business and financial models that will foster growth in the region with particular focus on Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Korea, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia & Vietnam.
13 July 2021
Energy Next is a new industry exhibition focusing on the latest renewable energy and energy efficiency technology, which will be held for the first time in 2021 in Sydney, Australia alongside the Clean Energy Council’s Australian Clean Energy Summit, the peak gathering of leaders driving Australia's energy transformation. Organised by the same people behind Australia’s largest clean energy event, All-Energy Australia, Energy Next will give visitors two days of access to key suppliers in the industry, free-to-attend professional development and industry workshops, and networking opportunities to better understand clean energy issues and solutions and learn about the latest developments in this transformational, dynamic sector.

Read Next

May 5, 2021
Europe’s solar industry has lauded the inclusion of a commitment to "re-ignite" Europe's solar manufacturing sector within the European Commission’s refreshed industrial strategy.
May 5, 2021
A round-up of news from the US solar sector, including updates from the Department of Energy, private equity firm American Securities, and Indiana developer Hoosier.
May 5, 2021
New solar and wind assets in the US are now cheaper to operate than nearly 80% of existing coal-fired generators in the country and could replace the asset class while delivering numerous benefits to consumers, a report has found.
May 5, 2021
Governments worldwide must ensure that there are sufficient raw materials available to solar and energy storage developers to safeguard the energy transition.
May 5, 2021
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has selected three commercial-scale green hydrogen projects that will share in AU$103 million (US$79.7 million) of funding to support their development.
May 5, 2021
SHV Energy, a Netherlands-based liquified petroleum gas (LPG) distributor, has acquired a majority stake in Indian solar developer SunSource Energy.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
May 11, 2021
Upcoming Webinars
May 26, 2021
Session 1 - 7:00 AM (BST) | Session 2 - 5:00 PM (BST)
Solar Media Events
June 15, 2021
Solar Media Events
July 6, 2021