Finlay Colville

Global PV demand during 2014 is set to represent a new phase of growth for the solar PV industry. Not just because end-market demand is now forecast by NPD Solarbuzz to grow significantly to reach 45-55GW, but because the fundamental issues driving end-market demand appear to be shifting away from legacy demand constraints.

Solar PV demand from the UK declined significantly during the third quarter of 2013 (Q3 2013), as the full impact of the Europe-China trade case impacted on module availability. Finlay Colville looks ahead to what 2014 what 2014 holds in store.

The solar PV industry remains in a highly turbulent transition phase, still getting to grips with the scale of over-investment that occurred in 2010 and 2011. In fact, having just got back from a global PV road-trip that took in Germany, the US, Korea, China and Taiwan, it is apparent that the aftershocks within the industry are set to continue for some time yet.

It is hard to imagine any marketing scenario in which citing leading ranking metrics would be off the radar. But just think for one minute: when was the last time a PV equipment supplier announced leading ranking status with any fanfare? Or proclaimed a purchase order that would catapult revenues beyond fiscal year guided levels?

The rush to build large-scale ground-mount projects to qualify for the 2ROCs incentive rate has pushed cumulative UK demand to 2.5GW. NPD Solarbuzz’s Finlay Colville looks at a record quarter for the UK.

As though by chance, the UK PV industry chose the London 2012 Olympic Games year to mark its entrance on the global stage as a gigawatt-status PV end market. And by the time the FIFA Soccer World Cup gets underway in Rio in 2014, Brazil will have broken through the 100MW annual PV demand barrier.

When final numbers are counted for capital equipment suppliers to the PV industry for 2012, the data will reveal a somewhat misleading picture. And one that was certainly not on the radar of any PV equipment supplier just 12 months ago.

For leading c-Si manufacturers, three issues have been influencing $/W cost metrics during the past couple of years: blended silicon cost, non-silicon process cost, and cell efficiency/module power.

To understand the potential impact of the preliminary US Department of Commerce ruling regarding import duties for c-Si modules that contain c-Si cells manufactured within China, it is necessary to clarify what the US market represents to leading tier 1 Chinese c-Si module suppliers (in absolute terms), as well as relative to the overall (global) market.

With 95% of module shipments in 2011 accounted for by a manufacturing group that is comprised of technologies specific to the c-Si community and thin film manufacturer, First Solar, for those seeking a disruptive alternative to compete with this dominance there are few options that command as much attention as CIGS.