It’s almost one year since the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) and rumours are beginning to fly around the UK solar industry as to what the upcoming Comprehensive Consultation on the feed-in tariff (FiT) holds. I decided it was time to investigate what people are actually saying, and to find out how much of what is being said matches the facts around budgets, pricing and deployment.
Suniva’s 170MW solar cell fab may not have the most ideal process flow, but it is a classic example of how much manufacturing capacity can be squeezed out of available floor space. Analogous to cramming 10 pounds of a certain something into a 5-pound bag, in the case of the company’s facility, three production lines have been inserted into an area originally designed for two. By running four shifts around the clock seven days a week (as it currently is) and fully using the double-tracked printing capability of some equipment—effectively turning those three lines into five—the fab can churn out a run rate of ~100,000 high-efficiency, low-cost monocrystalline-silicon cells per day, while boasting yields in the mid-90s.
Despite the muddy swirl of controversy surrounding that certain “you know who” CIGS company, many of the “survivors” in the most up-and-coming sector of the thin-film PV community just keep going about their business, driving up efficiencies, pushing down costs, closing deals, ramping production, and shipping products. Two Silicon Valley-based outfits, Nanosolar and Stion, have recently announced National Renewable Energy Lab-certified record conversion efficiencies and are both actively ramping production to feed their pipeline of orders. Here’s the latest from two of those left standing.
Early warning signals were emitted from Germany yesterday that suggested that under-pressure Chancellor Angela Merkel could be losing the plot. It could, however, be just the start of another campaign to pre-warn the German public that the January 2012 feed-in tariff cuts could be deeper than many anticipate.
Terrestrial solar power may be where the megawatt action is, but space-based photovoltaics provides its own intriguing kilowatt-scale technical challenges. In addition to the effects of extreme radiation on solar cells, one key aspect of using PV power in interplanetary space revolves around what the engineers and scientists call LILT, the acronym for “low intensity, low temperature” conditions. No mission has a more difficult LILT scenario than the engineering marvel known as Juno, which was launched from Cape Canaveral on Aug. 5 and is now about two months into its multiyear voyage to Jupiter. Equipped with the largest photovoltaic-panel array-wings of any planetary mission yet, the instrument-laden NASA probe will be the first spacecraft using PV power to venture to the outer planets of our solar system. Two of the Lockheed Martin engineers who played key roles in the design and construction of the array system and its integration into the spacecraft, as well as the head of Boeing’s Spectrolab unit, the group responsible for producing and laying out the strings of PV cells on the panels themselves, spoke with me recently about some of the unique aspects of the design, construction, and assembly of Juno’s solar array and its components.
When I drove up I-880 past the Solyndra buildings in Fremont earlier this week, it was the first time since the shutdown, bankruptcy filing, and subsequent public kerfuffle that I had been in the neighborhood. Stealing glances at the familiar facilities as I sped up the freeway, the nearly empty parking lots reminded me of the human toll and the plight of those thousand-odd employees who were summarily laid off without warning and without severance. But as I learned later that afternoon, many ex-Solyndrans have better prospects than they did a couple of weeks ago.
With its framework structure erect and the first walls attached, the shell of what will be one of the largest PV manufacturing plants in the US is quickly rising from the desert floor in Mesa, AZ, east of Phoenix. The freeway-close First Solar production center will join the company’s mothership factory complex in Perrysburg, OH, as a second domestic site once it comes online next year. During a visit to—and exciting Bobcat ride around—the project this week, I found out that construction activities are in full swing, as the accompanying photos attest.
Forecasting thin-film investments and capacity expansions has never been an exact science. However, with the exception today of First Solar, there are few market-based arguments to support the immediate capacity expansion of most thin-film fabs presently struggling to match the downward crystalline silicon cost and price curve.
We are abandoning our idea to selectively establish long-positions with certain names within the solar sector. Investor sentiment is at an all-time low and looks to only sour more as we approach the third quarter earnings period. We withdraw our previous idea to selectively buy a few names for a 2H11 trade into a solar “gold-rush” as our early signs of improving fundamentals appear to now be a mirage rather than an oasis.
As the stakes grow, B.J. “Billy” Stanbery knows how to keep his cards close to the vest. The chairman and cofounder of HelioVolt just saw the 10-year-old company’s new equity/lifeline investor, SK Group, push $50 million of chips into the CIGS thin-film PV venture’s pot—but he’s not willing to show his hand just yet. While thrilled to see a South Korean chaebol with its vast resources decide that “CIGS is the best horse to ride into the future” and that HelioVolt is the pony to run that track, he didn’t offer much in the way of detailed information about the race tactics and strategy. Stanbery, along with biz dev VP Iga Hallberg, spoke with me about the strategic investment and provided a few updates on recent progress made by the copper-indium-gallium-(di)selenide technology developer and panel manufacturer