This article provides an analysis of global installations/demand and global production/supply according to regions and technologies. The evaluated timeframe includes years 2010 and 2011. An outlook for 2012 is also provided on a best-estimate basis. Specifically, the implications of module shipments in 2011 and 2012(e) are presented. This is in line with an analysis of production capacities, their utilization rates and the corresponding impact on global profit margins.
In 1854, Matthew C. Perry - the Commander of the US Navy - compelled Japan to openup to its economy to foreign trade, after more than 200 years of a self-imposed isolation policy enforced by the ruling Tokugawa Shogun. The Commander arrived in Japan with four black-coloured US Navy warships, billowing black smoke. Later the term ‘Black Ships’ would be coined in Japan to symbolize any threat imposed by Western technology.
How much carbon is emitted in producing a solar PV module and launching it on the market? This could be an important question which project developers, installers, investors, government agencies and end customers will ask solar PV manufacturers in the future.
With 95% of module shipments in 2011 accounted for by a manufacturing group that is comprised of technologies specific to the c-Si community and thin film manufacturer, First Solar, for those seeking a disruptive alternative to compete with this dominance there are few options that command as much attention as CIGS.
Increasing panel efficiencies and power ratings represents a key deliverable from the PV industry today. These requirements are not simply long-term objectives for the industry as a whole: they are essential at the company level to differentiate leading suppliers within an overcrowded and highly competitive manufacturing environment.
Efficiency enhancements typically require changes in manufacturing process flow and materials (raw and consumable) used in production. Ideally, the technologies that drive these changes will be those featured within a technology roadmap.
Not withstanding the tumultuous year for solar cell and thin-film manufacturers, the top-10 rankings for 2011 saw only a few changes in position from 12 months ago. Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers maintained their prominence, securing 8 of the top-10 positions. But the number-one position in 2011 goes to First Solar, the only thin-film manufacturer on the list.
The simple answer is yes. Certainly enough modules and inverters were sold, and if installations really did hit 7.5GW in Germany then this would undoubtedly mean that at least 26GW was installed globally last year, with Germany retaining its position as the largest market, followed closely by Italy. We’re still finalising our data for 2011, but we now estimate up to 26.5GW could have been installed last year following the phenomenal year-end rally in Germany. This would have meant an incredible 10 GW was installed in the last quarter of the year – the first time this has ever happened and more than the whole amount installed in all of 2009!
As leading CIGS manufacturers and equipment suppliers in Europe prepare for quarterly and half-year reporting during August, the impact of Veeco’s parting comments may force a closer examination of existing market-share adoption rates and business-unit operating margins. The company’s rationale for exiting the CIGS systems business was based on its assessment that “the timeframe and cost to commercialization [of CIGS tooling] are not acceptable,” coupled with “the lower-than-expected end-market acceptance for CIGS technology.” Rather than speculating whether Veeco’s prepared remarks will—or will not—have any tangible effect on investor confidence levels across the CIGS community as a whole, it is perhaps more prudent to revisit the fortunes of other PV equipment suppliers that have been championing CIGS in support of dedicated product portfolios offered to the market.
As PV manufacturers prepare for Q2’11 reporting, the need to understand accurate industrywide capacity levels has become essential. Currently, much of the industry is addressing the prospect of widespread production cutbacks to allow record module inventory levels to be worked through. While in contrast, some Tier 1 producers continue to operate at close to full capacity utilization.
In reporting Q1’11 results on May 13, 2011, Roth & Rau highlighted year-on-year revenue growth for group activities (including PV) of 69.1% - from €35.3 million in Q1’10 to €59.7 million in Q1’11. Indeed, analogous to other PV companies recently across the value and supply-chains, emphasis was placed on year-on-year comparisons, not on quarter-on-quarter changes from the preceding reporting period Q4’10...
