According to the US Department of Commerce’s latest release of the ‘U.S. Imports of Merchandise’ database, solar-based products from China declined around 45% in May, compared to the same month a year ago. The Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing (CASM) claimed that this decline represented a positive impact of the recent anti-subsidy duties and anti-dumping duties applied to Chinese solar cells as users have therefore become concerned over the risks and uncertainties as well as cost issues of using Chinese modules for installations in the US.
However, as CASM noted from the data, import levels of Chinese solar products are at their higher levels for the year, compared to 2011. Figures through to end of May 2012 show that the total value of Chinese cell and panel imports reached US$1.21 billion, up from US$993.2 million for the same period of 2011, representing an increase of 21.8%.
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As cited by many Chinese tier 1 PV manufacturers during their first-quarter financial results, there had been a rush to supply modules into the US before possible duties would be applied, despite the knowledge of there being retroactive duties.
Many tier 1 producers cited provisions in their accounts for duties being imposed that were in the double-digit millions, though many highlighted that provisions in the second quarter would be significantly less or would not be necessary.
Such comments from Chinese tier 1 companies were taken to mean that a shift towards modules being imported into the US from China would include solar cells from Taiwanese producers or other cell producers from Asia and some from Europe. This move would have been an attempt to avoid the duties, therefore negating any meaningful decline in module shipments from China to the US.
During Intersolar North America, held last week in San Francisco, PV-Tech’s mini-ad-hoc survey while walking the show noted that there was little if any decline in attendees' interest in using China-based modules. Visitors also tended to have little if any experience of price increases due to the imposed tariffs.
However, several tier 1 producers said that any real negative impact on customer demand couldn’t be assessed until after the final ruling and duties are set to be imposed in early October 2012. Duties could be higher than those provisionally announced, though these could also be reduced.
CASM also noted from the May import figures for solar products that year-on-year imports from Malaysia, Philippines and Taiwan had all increased significantly. CASM said that imports from Malaysia had increased by 950% to US$135.5 million in May 2012, while imports from the Philippines reached US$41.5 million, up 47.3%, while imports from Taiwan had climbed 615% to US$47.2%.
However, it should be noted that US-based SunPower has manufacturing plants in Malaysia and the Philippines and has a significant PV project pipeline roll-out in the US this year.