Australia: Coordinated approach to transmission in Pilbara could save AU$30 billion

On the release of the report, CEFC CEO Ian Learmonth emphasised that the Pilbara represents “Australia’s greatest untapped transition opportunity,” with the potential to avoid 24 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually by 2050.

The Pilbara’s current electricity system is fragmented and dependent on fossil fuels. The North West Interconnected System (NWIS), the primary electricity system for the region, currently operates with 98% fossil fuel generation and just 2% renewables. Four separate networks serve different industrial operations.

Given the region’s development pattern, this fragmented approach has historically made sense, but it now presents a significant barrier to efficient decarbonisation. Without coordination across the region, companies are likely to pursue individual transmission solutions, resulting in duplicated infrastructure and higher overall system costs.

A shift towards a coordinated approach to the Pilbara

The proposed CUTI network represents a fundamental shift in approach. Rather than each industrial operation developing independent transmission links, the CUTI model envisions a coordinated network connecting 12 load nodes with renewable energy generation hubs through upgraded existing links and new connections in priority corridors.

The topological maps presented in the report illustrate this contrast clearly. The CUTI network shows interconnected nodes allowing power to flow throughout the system, which contrasts sharply with the ‘Autarky’ approach, a decentralised, “go it alone” strategy for transmission infrastructure development in the Pilbara region, where individual companies or industrial operations develop their own independent transmission networks rather than participating in a coordinated system.

The Autarky approach shows isolated connections between individual load centres and renewable energy generation hubs.

The CEFC also highlights that the report found a coordinated approach would require 19% less renewable energy generation capacity and 15% fewer transmission line kilometres than if companies pursued individual solutions.

This translates to approximately 12,500 hectares less land required for infrastructure, reducing environmental impact and streamlining approval processes.

Alongside this, the economic analysis presents a compelling case for the CUTI approach. Over a 25-year period from 2025 to 2050, the total annualised costs in the CUTI ‘base case’ amount to approximately AU$126 billion, compared to AU$157 billion in the Autarky scenario—a saving of AU$31 billion or nearly 20%. These savings come from multiple sources, including transmission infrastructure, generation CAPEX, and generation OPEX.

The report attributes these savings to several factors, including reduced infrastructure duplication, more efficient financing models and system-wide optimisation of renewable energy resources.

The importance of solar PV in the decarbonisation of the Pilbara

Solar PV emerges as a cornerstone technology in the CEFC report. Under the CUTI base case, the report projects 4.6GW of new solar capacity by 2050, contributing to a total of 5.1GW when including existing installations.

This represents a massive scaling of solar deployment in a region with exceptional solar resources. The Pilbara receives some of Australia’s highest solar irradiation levels, making it ideal for large-scale solar development.

However, the Autarky approach would require significantly more solar capacity, 5.8GW of new installations for a total of 6.4GW by 2050, to achieve the same level of decarbonisation.

The report outlines a rapid transformation timeline for the Pilbara electricity system under the CUTI approach. By the mid-2030s, the system would be predominantly powered by variable renewable energy. Gas generation facilities are transitioning to a backup role, providing approximately 4% of annual energy to cover periods when renewable energy generation is insufficient.

The CEFC notes that the Australian government has made available up to AU$3 billion in concessional finance through the Rewiring the Nation programme to support transmission infrastructure in the Pilbara.

This investment is intended to leverage private investment to meet the transmission and infrastructure needs that underpin decarbonisation across the Pilbara economy and attract further industry to the region.

Environmental advantages of a coordinated approach

Beyond pure economics, the CUTI approach offers significant environmental advantages. The report estimates that transmission infrastructure in the Base case would require 10,420 hectares of land, compared to 13,265 hectares in the Autarky case—a 21% reduction.

When including the land required for generation facilities, the difference becomes even more pronounced: 134,425 hectares in the base case versus 144,129 hectares in the Autarky case.

The report emphasises that a coordinated approach enables more effective stakeholder engagement, particularly Traditional Owners. The Western Australian government has already established the PET Aboriginal Working Group to engage 32 Native Title holders and claimants in planning the future of clean energy.

Alongside the base case scenario, the report also includes a ‘high demand’ scenario, in which electricity demand grows 33% higher than the Base case by 2050. The analysis shows that the CUTI approach remains advantageous in this scenario, with total system costs of AU$176 billion—12% higher than the Autarky case while serving 33% more demand.

Barriers preventing the CUTI vision

The report identifies several key requirements for the CUTI vision to become a reality, including system planning, transmission planning and development, industry engagement, investment frameworks and Traditional Owner engagement.

The Western Australian government has already taken steps in this direction through the Pilbara Energy Transition Plan.

The report concludes that the Pilbara energy system is at an inflection point. Electrification and decarbonisation, as they do across Australia and the world, provide the opportunity for wholesale system change.

This represents a significant opportunity for the solar industry. The Pilbara’s abundant solar resources, combined with coordinated transmission development, could position the region as a renewable energy powerhouse, supporting both existing industries and new green hydrogen and ammonia production.