A five-year global solar forecast by the European Photovoltaics Association (EPIA) has confirmed other recent reports of a major shift in activity away from solar’s traditional stronghold in Europe.
EPIA’s Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2103-2017 predicts that 2013 will be marked as the first year that the majority of new global solar capacity will be built outside of Europe.
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This forecast is based on a trend that has emerged over recent years: in 2011, Europe accounted for 70% of all new global PV capacity, but by last year accounted for 55%.
“The results of 2012 signal a turning point that will have profound implications in the coming years,” said EPIA President Winfried Hoffmann. “The global PV market is shifting from one driven mostly by Europe to one that also depends on countries around the world with varying degrees of solar potential and the political will to exploit it.”
Overall, EPIA said that in 2012 the world installed 31GW of new capacity, approximately the same as the year before.
Of this, 17.2GW was in Europe, compared to 22.4GW the year before.
Germany, for the seventh time in 13 years, was the world leader, adding 7.6GW of new capacity, followed by China, which saw 5GW.
Based on current ‘business as usual’ trends, EPIA forecasts the global annual market could reach 48GW in 2017. But with more countries adopting proactive PV policies, EPIA said it could reach as much as 84GW annually by 2017.
Hoffmann added: Even in challenging times, the prospects going forward for solar PV – a clean, safe and infinitely renewable power source – remain solid, especially the medium- to long-term. The main questions are how and where continued PV growth will occur, and how committed policymakers are to making it happen.”
