TOPCon solar module technology will continue to be the trendsetter in the PV industry over the next five years, with its high level of industrialization, higher customer value, including higher yield capability per watt, higher reliability, lowest per-GW equipment investment, and production capacity, according to Trina VP Dr. Chen Yifeng.
Reinforcing its status as the dominant cell technology, TOPCon’s market share, based on module shipments, is estimated to be about 70%-80%, significantly higher than that of other technologies. The technology’s dominance can be explained by its level of industrialization and the maturity of its supply chain, which are critical to cost and value. Efficiency of TOPCon cells can further increase by 1% with the power output of its modules able to increase by 30W+.
TOPCon technology can further improve efficiency and reduce costs by lowering the thickness of Poly-Si on the rear side, mitigating optical parasitic absorption and adopting ultra-fine grid technology. In Dr Chen’s view, in five years an n-type TOPCon-based perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell will lead the industry since TOPCon is better as a bottom cell than XBC, which faces substantial limitations, especially the three-terminal tandem solar cell structure when XBC is stacked to perovskite.
Trina is also developing TOPCon tandem cells, with laboratory efficiency forecast to reach 34-35% and the efficiency of tandem technology based on i-TOPCon bottom cells in mass production forecast to surpass 30%.
