Is the US in a solar module oversupply situation in 2016?

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
Source: First Solar.

Recent shipment guidance from two leading members of the ‘Silicon Module Super League’ (SMSL), Trina Solar and JinkoSolar highlighted that the US solar PV market in 2016 was expected to show considerable growth but raised concerns over the possibility of a module oversupply situation when compiling a list of suppliers with their own US ambitions. 

The US PV market in 2016 has already been forecasted to be in the range of 12GW to 14GW in 2016, GTM has forecasted 13.5GW, up from 7.2GW in 2015. 

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

However, analysis by PV Tech of a number of SMSL members and other manufacturers (not a comprehensive list) with either shipment guidance or estimates by PV Tech, based on 2015 US shipment figures indicates more than 16GW of module shipments could be heading to the US this year. 

The six SMSL members alone are expected to ship as much as 8GW to the US in 2016. Add in domestic players such as SunPower and First Solar and shipments figures climb well above current end market forecasts. 

That aspect prompted PV Tech to take a closer look at the downstream US utility and utility-scale project pipelines for 2016 to indentify whether the forecasts were out of alignment with large-scale project projections. Residential and commercial markets were not expected to be bigger than expected to fill the gap.

Although not a comprehensive analysis it was clear that US utility and utility-scale project plans for 2016 were significantly higher than forecasts such as those recently given by the US Energy Information Administration that forecasted 9.5GWof US utility-scale deployments in 2016.

The planned shipment figures below therefore help confirm that the US solar market is heading for a significant increase in 2016, much more than previously expected and oversupply is highly unlikely. 

US PV module shipment guidance and estimates from key suppliers in 2016

Trina Solar               1.75GW – 2GW
Hanwha Q CELLS    1.5GW – 2GW
JinkoSolar               1.5GW+
First Solar               2GW+
SunPower               1GW – 1.4GW
SunEdison              1GW – 2GW
Canadian Solar        1GW – 1.5GW
JA Solar                 300MW – 600MW 
SolarWorld              600MW – 900MW
REC Solar              400MW – 550MW
Suniva/Suntech      300MW – 400MW
Solar Frontier         200MW – 350MW
Seraphim               100MW- 200MW
Yingli Green           200MW – 400MW
Mission Solar         100MW – 200MW
Silevo/SolarCity       20MW – 160MW
    
    Total: 10,470MW – 16,160MW

The analysis potentially indicates that more than 16GW of modules is needed to meet US market demand in 2016, potentially pulling in more shipments from Japanese and Korean firms and others that can avoid US anti-dumping duties. 

7 October 2025
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 7-8 October 2025 is our third PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The events in 2023 and 2024 were a sell out success and 2025 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
21 October 2025
New York, USA
Returning for its 12th edition, Solar and Storage Finance USA Summit remains the annual event where decision-makers at the forefront of solar and storage projects across the United States and capital converge. Featuring the most active solar and storage transactors, join us for a packed two-days of deal-making, learning and networking.
16 June 2026
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 16-17 June 2026, will be our fifth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2027 and beyond.

Read Next

July 18, 2025
The average price of solar panels used in distributed generation projects in the US reached US$0.27/W by the first half of the year.
July 18, 2025
Georgia Power’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will see the utility aim to install 4GW of new renewable power capacity by 2035.
July 18, 2025
Decisions and actions related to the US Department of Interior (DoI) will ‘undergo elevated review’ of solar PV and wind facilities.
July 17, 2025
Indian solar manufacturers are among the targets of a new petition filed by US producers alleging illegal trade practices by overseas firms.
July 17, 2025
The California Senate Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee has amended Assembly Bill 942 (AB 942) and removed a net metering amendment that would have affected residential solar owners’ rates when acquiring a home or property.
July 17, 2025
Corporate funding in the solar sector fell by 39% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period last year.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Media Partners, Solar Media Events
September 2, 2025
Mexico City, Mexico
Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 22, 2025
Bilbao, Spain
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK