At the recently held Global PV Demand Conference, hosted by SolarPlaza, attendees raised concern over the potential overcapacity in the photovoltaics industry having a significant impact, starting in 2009.
Conference attendees expect the PV industry to generate MW output growth levels of 72 percent in both 2008 and 2009, while demand for PV is expected to grow by 34 percent between 2008 and 2011. Such projections would result in supply being twice as great as actual global demand, resulting in a significant fall in prices across the supply chain and a period of industry consolidation.
According to a presentation by the Prometheus Institute, the supply of crystalline and thin-film modules could reach almost 15GW in 2010 and 23.7GW in 2012, up from 3.1GW in 2007.
SolarPlaza’s own expert, Edwin Koot, projected that demand could reach 40GWp per year by 2018, based on grid parity being reached in certain favorable markets in 2012.