Market Watch

Traditional markets for PV will be scaling back on the level of demand for PV, but there are already signs that the developing countries will be stepping in to pick up the slack. This will be a combination of both standard grid-connected and micro-grid types of installation. Micro-grids present the opportunity for countries to develop a cellphone type of model for power distribution whereby regions without electrification can have a regional power source that allows for local access. This market is projected to become significant in the next several years, as the access to lower cost PV makes this option more easily implemented. This paper evaluates the market size of what has been an overlooked ‘niche’ for PV and describes the key considerations for a micro-grid installation, the developing conditions favouring installation, and some of the specifics of a micro-grid case study. The point is made that the grid-connected market will be increasingly assisted by the micro-grid segment as the latter becomes a significant source of PV demand and energy provision. Contrary to common notions, the micro-grid and hybrid off-grid segments will play an increasing role, even in areas with a grid in place.

The behaviour of PV markets over the last decade in Europe has taught us that not only it is necessary to optimally design support schemes, but that priority access to the grid for renewable energy sources and the reduction of administrative barriers are the key market drivers for sustainable development and essential for the markets to sustainably develop in the long term. This paper provides an overview of Europe’s PV market performance and delivers policy recommendations by means of EPIA’s PV Observatory model.

The Italian PV market is poised to become the leading market worldwide. However the recent GSE estimates have revealed unexpected volumes installed in 2010. This may lead to an adjustment of the feed-in tariff (FiT) level in the course of this year. GIFI (the Italian PV industry association) is preparing the field for a proposal to make the market development more sustainable, long-lasting and to upgrade the 2020 target.

Over the past two years the solar industry has shown itself to be incredibly resilient to general economic crisis. Supported by cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, the PV industry managed to achieve a growth rate of 120%, or 16.2GW, of newly installed capacity in 2010. Although individual companies are feeling the strong price and margin pressure and intensifying competition, the large, international and vertically-integrated companies are surviving. At least eight new PV markets with a potential annual capacity of 500MW are expected to be added over the next two years. The PV industry will therefore acquire the stability and political autonomy it needs to be able to grow unimpeded and to enter new dimensions. There might also be further tailwind for the PV industry from the catastrophic nuclear crisis in Japan.

One of the most important ways in which inorganic thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) and organic photovoltaics (OPV) can distinguish themselves from more conventional crystalline silicon photovoltaics (c-Si PV) in the marketplace is through the commercialization of flexible photovoltaic products using those technologies. But flexible photovoltaics brings with it some challenges of its own in terms of excluding air and moisture from the cells; challenges that translate into opportunities for suppliers of advanced encapsulation materials and systems as well as for TFPV and OPV firms.

Germany and Italy are forecasted to drive solar demand to new highs in 2011, with rumours of installations up to 22GW on the cards for this year. The German and Italian markets, scheduled to peak in 2011 and 2012, respectively, face a potential problem in terms of where to sell their modules if these two countries cannot accommodate 10GW of installations per year. The emerging markets can solve part of this challenge and will deliver new opportunities to the solar industry. Some Asian, European and Middle Eastern regions will require up to of 6GW of solar-generated electricity, while the Americas, Africa and Australia are each projected to install approximately 1GW in 2014. This paper takes a look at the development of these emerging markets and provides a projection of likely installation figures up to 2015.

The U.S. solar PV market is suffering not from a lack of demand or high prices, but rather from an inconsistent labyrinth of rules and regulations which complicate and prolong uptake. There is significant pent-up demand in the U.S. among developers and especially manufacturers; there is not, however, a commensurate regulatory framework that will enable and encourage this demand to be realized. The U.S. political landscape is deeply divided, and policies that would directly or indirectly effect solar demand are no different from any other in this regard.

Mainland France’s photovoltaics market is substantially different from the situation in the country’s overseas Départements (DOM) and Corsica. Feed-in tariffs, tax breaks, financing and market players all differ in these territories. This paper takes a look at France’s mainland market, providing a projection for the country’s future market and some resources for more information on the DOM and Corsican markets [1].

The upper and lower houses of the German parliament took their time finding a compromise on the degression of PV tariffs. Cutbacks were finally decided on at the start of July. The German PV market is now headed for another record-breaking year in 2010 despite or maybe even as a result of these reductions. EuPD Research, the market research institute, is making a conservative projection of approximately 5.5GW in newly-installed capacity. Nevertheless, pressure is set to increase, particularly on German solar companies. New marketing strategies have to be developed in the mid-term in order to survive and explore new segments in the long term.

The French Ministry for the Environment, Ecology, Sustainable Development and Sea (MEEDDM) officially published a new decree concerning photovoltaic electricity generation and feed-in tariffs (FiT) on January 12th 2010. This was followed by a second decree, published on March 16th 2010, which contained some additional information and revisions to the first. This paper outlines the effects the revisions will have on France’s solar industry and provides guidelines for future developments in the country.