Surprised by the official figures for solar PV installations in China in the first quarter of 2015, Deutsche Bank analyst, Vishal Shah cited renewed momentum in the Chinese market that could result in the 17.8GW government target for the year being surpassed.
According to checks made by Deutsche Bank, the Chinese government was said to be working with leader PV companies in the country to streamline key aspects of promoting solar installation growth including the important FiT payment process from generally around nine months after grid connection to more favourable 3-6 months.
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Coupled with several key provinces already in the important process of allocating targets, which compared to last year did not generally happen until after mid-year, and the potential incentive to get project completed in 2015 to beat expected FiT cuts, led Shah to envisage solar installations in China topping 20GW in 2015.
The Deutsche Bank analyst also highlighted in an investor note that with around 4.38GW of utility scale solar having been installed in China in the first quarter of 2015, more than 3GW of the total had been projects started in the latter half of 2014.
Shah expects a ramp in 2015 installations starting in May when this year’s construction quota has been allocated by local governments that was expected to lead to another 5GW of installs being achieved in the second quarter of the year, further supporting the idea that the 17.8GW target was more than easily passable come the fourth quarter of 2015.
Should installations remain robust in 2015 then Shah expected cumulative solar capacity could exceed 45-50GW by year-end.