BNEF swaps Japan for China as biggest solar market in 2013

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has said that preliminary estimates indicate that the PV industry end demand reached as high as 39GW in 2013, up 28% from 2012 and driven by massive growth in China, Japan and the US in particular.

General consensus from a range of market forecasters expects installations to have reached around 36GW in 2013.

U-Turn

However, more significant is BNEF’s u-turn on projections given throughout 2013, that Japan would be the largest market for solar installations, with China and the US in second and third position, respectively.

BNEF acknowledged that China had “outstripped all expectations in 2013” as part of its headline for a press release providing its estimates for the sector last year.

According to BNEF, demand in China reached at least 12GW in 2013, citing preliminary figures from China’s National Energy Administration, though the government agency also acknowledged that fully qualified figures for the year were yet to be compiled and validated.

BNEF noted that demand in China could have reached 14GW in 2013 as developers rushed to complete projects before FIT changes at the end of the year.

“The 2013 figures show the astonishing scale of the Chinese market, now the sleeping dragon has awoken” said, Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “PV is becoming ever cheaper and simpler to install, and China’s government has been as surprised as European governments by how quickly it can be deployed in response to incentives.”

Currently, BNEF said it had compiled a project database that had recorded 9.5GW of projects built in China in 2013 but would have nearly complete data by March, 2014.

On a regional basis in China, BNEF noted that PV projects were heavily concentrated in remote, high irradiance regions of western provinces of Gansu, Xinjiang and Qinghai.

Gansu was expected to have been responsible for 24% of all installations in China last year, while Xinjiang was said to have accounted for 18% and Qinghai, 17% of installations.

According to BNEF, state-owned power generators China Power Investment Corporation, China Three Gorges and China Huadian have become the world’s largest owners of solar assets and China the first country to install more than 8GW of PV in a given year.

Japan second largest market

Japanese installations in calendar year 2013 were not revealed in the statement but BNEF had previously said earlier in the year that the country would install around 7.7GW, just ahead of China at 7.6GW. However, later projections touted Japan would install around 9.5GW, perpetuating its message that Japan would be the largest market for solar.

According to BNEF, China is expected to retain its number one ranking with a forecast of another year of installations reaching 14GW. The lack of growth was said to be due to the change in feed-in mechanisms that have changed to focus on distributed generation in urban, high population areas in the eastern provinces.

Growth would be tempered as the switch to commercial rooftop installations is more complex and would take time to build momentum. However, BNEF believes growth will recover in 2015.

2014 forecast

The global PV market growth in 2014 was forecasted to be 20% higher than in 2013, putting BNEF’s forecast for the year at around 46.8GW.

Industry forecasts from Yingli Green, NPD Solarbuzz, Deutsche Bank, ROTH Capital and BNEF all project bullish global PV demand in 2014.
 

11 May 2021
Join this Talesun Solar webinar focused on providing an insight into the company’s next-generation series of large-area, high-efficiency PERC (Passivated Emitter Rear Cell) modules. These are available in both monofacial (‘BiStar’) and bifacial (‘BiPro’) formats, using 182mm half-cut cells in 144 and 156 cell configurations and provide up to 590Wp performance with efficiencies of up to 21.2%.
11 May 2021
Green Hydrogen: always the future never the now? Join us on 11-12 & 18-19 May for a fresh look at what’s fast becoming a reality. Governments across the world have put hydrogen at the centre of their decarbonisation plans with billions of dollars allocated to stimulating the market and whilst individual strategies will differ, the theme is the same: green hydrogen is the fuel of the future. Its role goes beyond energy use and there is already an active off-take market. From the perspective of renewable generators, hydrogen can play a pivotal role in enabling unsubsidised projects to work in a low power price environment and provide another business model in areas where the grid is congested. Hydrogen could also be the driver of a new wave of renewable installations as countries’ hydrogen plans hinge on new capacity being available.
26 May 2021
Tara Doyle and Tristan Erion-Lorico of PV Evolution Labs (PVEL), will share this year’s top-performing modules and discuss key findings from PVEL’s PQP testing. Join us to explore which find out which new Top Performer category can affect project value by more than $100,000 – and which test resulted in >20% degradation.
15 June 2021
Looking at the drivers and dynamics of utility scale solar in the UK over the next five years. This event will consider the immediate challenges as we enter the build phase in the UK market where we could see as much as 3GW deployed in 2021 alone! What developments will continue the growth of 100MW+ sites and what impact will government policy have on the rate of deployment in the UK? Join leading developers and manufacturers shaping the direction of one of Europe’s most active markets and hear from speakers with a history of influencing innovation and change.
6 July 2021
Explore in depth the opportunities of the different countries via case studies, business and financial models that will foster growth in the region with particular focus on Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Korea, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia & Vietnam.
13 July 2021
Energy Next is a new industry exhibition focusing on the latest renewable energy and energy efficiency technology, which will be held for the first time in 2021 in Sydney, Australia alongside the Clean Energy Council’s Australian Clean Energy Summit, the peak gathering of leaders driving Australia's energy transformation. Organised by the same people behind Australia’s largest clean energy event, All-Energy Australia, Energy Next will give visitors two days of access to key suppliers in the industry, free-to-attend professional development and industry workshops, and networking opportunities to better understand clean energy issues and solutions and learn about the latest developments in this transformational, dynamic sector.

Read Next

May 5, 2021
Europe’s solar industry has lauded the inclusion of a commitment to "re-ignite" Europe's solar manufacturing sector within the European Commission’s refreshed industrial strategy.
May 5, 2021
A round-up of news from the US solar sector, including updates from the Department of Energy, private equity firm American Securities, and Indiana developer Hoosier.
May 5, 2021
New solar and wind assets in the US are now cheaper to operate than nearly 80% of existing coal-fired generators in the country and could replace the asset class while delivering numerous benefits to consumers, a report has found.
May 5, 2021
Governments worldwide must ensure that there are sufficient raw materials available to solar and energy storage developers to safeguard the energy transition.
May 5, 2021
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has selected three commercial-scale green hydrogen projects that will share in AU$103 million (US$79.7 million) of funding to support their development.
May 5, 2021
SHV Energy, a Netherlands-based liquified petroleum gas (LPG) distributor, has acquired a majority stake in Indian solar developer SunSource Energy.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
May 11, 2021
Upcoming Webinars
May 26, 2021
Session 1 - 7:00 AM (BST) | Session 2 - 5:00 PM (BST)
Solar Media Events
June 15, 2021
Solar Media Events
July 6, 2021