In 2015, PV demand in China could top 18GW, according to an updated forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
BNEF highlighted that PV installations in China could reach a minimum of 15GW in 2015, while its ‘optimistic scenario’ called for installs of 18GW.
Interestingly, BNEF noted that if feed-in tariffs are reduced for 2016, further demand could be brought forward to 2015, pushing installations higher than its 18GW optimistic scenario.
However, the mid-range figures from BNEF are in line with China’s NEA set target of 17.8GW of PV installations in the country for this year.
Talking to PV Tech, Jenny Chase, Head of Solar Insight, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said that China could realistically install around 15GW this year due to an estimated 4GW of completed PV projects that were not counted by the NEA as grid connected.
This would mean that around 60-80% of 17.8GW quota could be met in 2015 from newly connected projects.
Indeed, Chase noted that its previous installation forecast for China in 2014 had been provisionally raised to 13GW, up from 12GW previously, primarily due to the number of projects completed against those officially counted as grid connected.
Although the NEA has removed the distributed generation (DG) quota targets BNEF is projecting DG projects could be in the range of 5GW to 7GW in 2015. There are no limitations placed on rooftop installations.