Deutsche Bank hails second solar ‘gold rush’

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on email

In a new detailed report by Deutsche Bank’s US-based solar industry analysts, the PV industry is said to be heading into its “second gold rush” with a base demand of 46GW in 2014, topped by an expected 56GW of demand in 2015.

Deutsche Bank is echoing recent bullish analysis of the PV sector by market research firm, NPD Solarbuzz, which is projecting PV installations to reach 49GW in 2014.

However, Deutsche Bank noted in the report that there was potential for demand to be higher than forecasted in 2014 due to the key markets of China, Japan and the US exceeding projected installation levels as markets build considerable momentum.

Key markets

Deutsche Bank’s base case demand estimates for China go from around 8GW in 2013 to 12GW in 2014, while the Japanese market is expected to increase from around 7GW in 2013 to around 8GW in 2014.

The US, the third major market, is expected to see demand increase from 6GW in 2013 to around 8GW in 2014.

Despite the European market in decline, Deutsche Bank projects that Europe would account for between 7-8GW of demand in 2014.

Emerging markets are also expected to make a considerable contribution, ranging from 12GW to 17GW of demand, notably from India, South Africa, South America, South East Asia and Australia, which are all expected to surpass 1GW in 2014.

However, despite Deutsche Bank’s bullish analysis it may be underestimating demand dynamics in some key markets such as the UK. According to the bank's analysis, the UK market demand is expected to reach 1.1GW in 2013 and only increase to 1.3GW in 2014.

“The UK installed over 1.4GW during 2013, with deployment in Q4'13 much higher than previously expected,” noted Finlay Colville, vice president of NPD Solarbuzz to PV Tech. “Currently, the economics under 1.4 ROCs/MWh are driving a strong mid-year pull from the ground-mount segment during 2014 – something that was in absence during 2013.

“The UK will comfortably exceed the 2GW level during 2014, with upside potential if changes in legislation to enable the mid-size segment can be accelerated to impact deployment levels over the next 12 months. The residential segment is also set for a very strong Q1'14, with contributions from Northern Ireland also having an impact before changes to residential installations take effect from the start of April.”

Supply/demand dynamics

Deutsche Bank noted that with strong end-market demand and continued capital expenditure constraints as major PV manufacturers focus on building downstream markets and spending primarily targeted at additional PV module capacity the supply of polysilicon, wafers and solar cells could remain in constraint through 2014.

As a result, Deutsche Bank expects major polysilicon players such as GCL-Poly, Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor and OCI to either reach full capacity or add capacity by 2015. Several major players such as Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor and OCI have new plants constructed or near completion but on hold that could be the first of a new wave of polysilicon capacity expansions to meet significantly higher demand expected in 2015.

Deutsche Bank also noted that PV was currently competitive without subsidies in at least 19 markets globally and expected more markets to reach grid parity in 2014 as balance-of-system prices continuedto decline, despite cost-per-watt reductions slowing.

Coupled to improving conditions for the downstream market gaining access to low-cost finance and favourable policy conditions in key markets such as China and Japan, the PV market is therefore booming, the report concluded.

26 May 2021
Tara Doyle and Tristan Erion-Lorico of PV Evolution Labs (PVEL), will share this year’s top-performing modules and discuss key findings from PVEL’s PQP testing. Join us to explore which find out which new Top Performer category can affect project value by more than $100,000 – and which test resulted in >20% degradation.
15 June 2021
Looking at the drivers and dynamics of utility scale solar in the UK over the next five years. This event will consider the immediate challenges as we enter the build phase in the UK market where we could see as much as 3GW deployed in 2021 alone! What developments will continue the growth of 100MW+ sites and what impact will government policy have on the rate of deployment in the UK? Join leading developers and manufacturers shaping the direction of one of Europe’s most active markets and hear from speakers with a history of influencing innovation and change.
6 July 2021
Explore in depth the opportunities of the different countries via case studies, business and financial models that will foster growth in the region with particular focus on Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Korea, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia & Vietnam.
13 July 2021
Energy Next is a new industry exhibition focusing on the latest renewable energy and energy efficiency technology, which will be held for the first time in 2021 in Sydney, Australia alongside the Clean Energy Council’s Australian Clean Energy Summit, the peak gathering of leaders driving Australia's energy transformation. Organised by the same people behind Australia’s largest clean energy event, All-Energy Australia, Energy Next will give visitors two days of access to key suppliers in the industry, free-to-attend professional development and industry workshops, and networking opportunities to better understand clean energy issues and solutions and learn about the latest developments in this transformational, dynamic sector.
24 August 2021
Join us to hear directly from the CTOs and heads-of-research from the top-20 cell/wafer producers to the PV industry today. You'll find out which companies are investing and what technologies and cell architectures are being primed for multi-GW production and gather key market intel around wafer supplier trends for cell manufacturing, including which format/wafer-size is likely to dominate 3-5 years out.
25 August 2021
The Intersolar Summit Brasil Nordeste takes place in Fortaleza, Brazil. It addresses leading local and international experts on solar power and renewable energy in the region. The Summit’s mission is to provide in-depth education, enable high-quality networking opportunities, expand the use of PV technologies at regional and national level and strengthen the local PV industry. The Intersolar Summit Brasil Nordeste is organized by Intersolar South America - Latin America’s largest exhibition and conference for the solar industry: Solar Promotion International GmbH, Pforzheim, Freiburg Management and Marketing International GmbH (FMMI) and Aranda Eventos & Congressos Ltda, São Paulo as co-organizer.

Read Next

May 14, 2021
The PV industry “must remain vigilant” across its supply chain in meeting global human rights standards, trade association SolarPower Europe has said in a new sustainability report.
May 14, 2021
The American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) has said that a proposed transmission investment tax credit (ITC) in the US could spur US$15.3 billion of fresh investment in clean energy and enable an extra 42GW of wind and solar capacity to come online.
PV Tech Premium
May 14, 2021
While foreign investors are said to be flocking to Greece’s solar sector, project developers are struggling with headwinds in the form of grid access challenges and local resistance to new renewables plants. Jules Scully looks at how these hurdles are affecting PV deployment in the country.
May 14, 2021
Renewable energy company and Solar Module Super League (SMSL) member Canadian Solar has invested in UK-based battery storage software company Habitat Energy.
May 14, 2021
Commercial operations have started at a 50MW solar power plant in the Philippines after construction was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic last year.
May 13, 2021
Solar developer Lightsource BP has been granted planning approval to develop a 400MWdc solar farm in New South Wales Australia.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
May 26, 2021
Session 1 - 7:00 AM (BST) | Session 2 - 5:00 PM (BST)
Solar Media Events
June 15, 2021
Solar Media Events
July 6, 2021
Solar Media Events
August 24, 2021