Enphase lowers Q4 revenue forecast off the back of slow sales

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An Enphase Energy factory.
Enphase Energy’s microinverter shipments reached 1.7 million in the third quarter of the year, above its target of 1.1 million. Image: Enphase Energy.

US microinverter manufacturer Enphase Energy has revised down its financial outlook for the year off the back of weak demand in certain markets.

According to quarterly results, Enphase shipped fewer microinverters in the first three quarters of 2024 than it did in the first quarter of 2023 (see chart below).

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While the company’s US performance has remained strong—its inverter sales in the US rose 43% quarter-on-quarter—its global sales fell by 55.6% between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024. This has been compounded by falling electricity prices in Europe, which declined in the second half of 2023 for the first time since the jump in power prices caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The sales figures are reflected in the company’s financial performance: in the third quarter of 2023, the company posted revenue of US$551.1 million compared to US$380.9 million in Q3 this year, and earnings per share of US$0.84 in Q3 last year versus US$0.34 this year.

As a result, Enphase has revised down its financial outlook for the remainder of the year, and expects its fourth quarter revenue to be between US$360-400 million. This is lower than earlier forecasts of US$435.8 million, and its more conservative estimates triggered a 9% loss in share value when the results were first published on Tuesday. This had recovered slightly by the time of this article’s publication.

Despite the downward revision of its forecast and falling share price, the company managed to exceed its microinverter shipment target of 1.1 million.

Overall, Enphase sold 1.7 million microinverters in the quarter, with a combined capacity of around 730MW, from its US manufacturing facilities.

Its quarterly revenue of US$380.9 million was up on the US$303.5 million posted in the second quarter of this year. Between the second and third quarters of the year, the company’s operating income jumped from US$1.8 million to US$49.8 million, and drove an increase in earnings per share from US$0.08 to US$0.34.

In the third quarter, the company also shipped 172.9MWh of batteries, compared to 120.2MWh in the second quarter of the year. Enphase noted that, between the second and third quarters, 1,600 new installers are now certified to install its IQ Batteries, pushing the total number of certified installers to 9,000.

Enphase added that its microinverter production will benefit from the 45X manufacturing production tax credit available under the US Inflation Reduction Act, and these strong sales figures are the latest positive reflection of the US efforts to onshore clean energy manufacturing capacity. Crux CEO Alfred Johnson told PV Tech Premium earlier this year that solar and 45X manufacturing tax credits were the two categories of tax credit showing the greatest levels of transaction activity, according to Crux’s research.

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