The latest figures for the German Bundesnetzagentur show that registered installations in Germany in the first eight months of 2010 reached 4.8GW, a massive 327% higher than the same period in 2009. According to IMS Research, Germany accounted for 48% of global demand in the first three quarters of 2010 – up from 40% for the same period in 2009.
The market research firm said that small commercial systems up to 100kW in size have led demand in Germany. This market has reached over 2.6GW, an increase of 280% compared to the same period in 2009. Residential installations are estimated by IMS Research to have grown year-on-year by 140% and large commercial systems by almost 500%.
“High demand has been seen from almost every part of the German market and these results up to August solidify our prediction that the German market could reach up to 8GW in 2010, and the global market more than 16GW,” commented Ash Sharma, PV research director at IMS Research.
Like the report from iSuppli, IMS Research expects a fall in demand in the first quarter of 2011 and a period of overcapacity that will lead to rapid price declines.
“A large FIT cut is inevitable in Germany in 2012, which will likely drive big demand for PV systems in 2011. However, with only a single cut currently planned at the end of 2011, it is likely the market will cool considerably in Q1 2011. With production capacity being massively ramped up, it is very possible that this overcapacity will lead to big falls in prices through the supply chain. This could delay buying, and result in market revenues and margins indeed falling next year” Sharma added.