IRA will see solar and wind account for over 60% of US generation by 2030 – NREL

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
The NREL Flatiron campus and PV array. Image: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Solar and wind installations in the US could account for between 40% and 62% of total electricity generation by 2030, according to a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

The forecast growth is due to the stimulating effects of the ‘game-changing’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which came into force last summer and introduced US$369 billion in incentives and tax credits for renewable energy investment, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) which focuses on jobs and infrastructure investment.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

NREL said that the combined support for climate initiatives and tax incentives from the two acts could exceed US$430 billion through 2031, bringing deployments up with it.

Under the most likely forecast scenario included in its ‘Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the US Power System’ report, NREL predicts that cumulative US solar and wind deployments will reach between 350GW and 750GW from 2023-30, whilst total installed capacity by 2030 will sit between 600GW and 1000GW. The variation takes into account potential barriers to deployment and factors like fuel and technology costs.  

Annually, the report predicts that solar PV deployment could grow rapidly to between 43GW and 47GW a year, an increase of between 135% and 160% compared with the previous decade’s figures. A more conservative prediction that assumes lessened improvements in clean energy technology and a drop in natural gas prices will see between 19GW and 36GW of annual PV deployment.

The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie published a report earlier this month saying that the US installed 20.2GW of solar PV across all market segments last year. This was a decrease from 2021 amidst ongoing supply chain issues and a subsequent shortage of modules.

NREL’s prediction that the IRA will begin to trigger significant expansion for the US solar PV industry echoes a September report from WoodMac, which suggested that the IRA’s full impact would begin to be felt in 2024. The sense from analysts and industry bodies is that the US is set to truly expand its PV industry once its supply chain constraints loosen and more domestic manufacturing capacity comes online. The former, however, is still a largely unknown entity.

The report also takes into account policy changes and sensitivities within the IRA that could impact deployment outcomes. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) facilities – which incentivise renewable energy manufacturing and between which developers and manufacturers can choose – will impact deployment and investment levels. The schemes are dependent on different factors, like domestic content requirements for solar deployments, and are set to be altered from 2025.

Ultimately, NREL forecasts that clean energy including solar, wind, storage and other renewable sources could occupy as much as 80% of US generation capacity by 2030 as a direct result of the IRA. Pricing, markets, policy sensitivities and the rate of technological change all impact the levels of penetration into the energy mix, but the trajectory is universally upwards. In all scenarios, solar PV is set to be the most dominant technology in the US.

The report concluded: “Fully realizing these modeled benefits will require action by all jurisdictions of U.S. government—federal, state, and local—the private sector, and civil society to support the beneficial deployment of clean energy technologies.”

7 October 2025
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 7-8 October 2025 is our third PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The events in 2023 and 2024 were a sell out success and 2025 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
21 October 2025
New York, USA
Returning for its 12th edition, Solar and Storage Finance USA Summit remains the annual event where decision-makers at the forefront of solar and storage projects across the United States and capital converge. Featuring the most active solar and storage transactors, join us for a packed two-days of deal-making, learning and networking.
16 June 2026
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 16-17 June 2026, will be our fifth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2027 and beyond.

Read Next

September 5, 2025
US solar tracker manufacturer Nextracker has launched a new electrical balance of systems (eBOS) trunk connector.
September 5, 2025
Scientists from Germany and Saudi Arabia have discovered that perovskite thin-film cells are compatible with current industry standard silicon solar cells, which they claim is a “crucial step toward the industrialisation of perovskite silicon tandem solar cells”.
September 5, 2025
During a week of major US clean energy developments, ContourGlobal, PSE, Arevon, and Ameren Missouri advanced solar projects across four states in the US.
September 5, 2025
Newly formed firm Solaris Assets has acquired the business operations and assets of Texas-based residential solar installer Sunnova.
September 5, 2025
US solar tracker manufacturer Array Technologies has announced that two of its tracking systems are compatible with 2,000V solar systems.
September 5, 2025
Research firm Rystad Energy has found that Queensland’s utility-scale solar PV power plants have dominated the best-performing assets, in terms of AC capacity factor, rankings for August 2025.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
October 2, 2025
London,UK
Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
Manila, Philippines