BNEF: US rooftop solar set for record-breaking year as renewables avoid brunt of pandemic

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
A transition to digital sales during lockdown has enabled solar companies to reach new customers. Image: Sunnova.

The US residential solar sector is set to break installation records this year as clean energy development proves resilient to disruptions caused by COVID-19.

That is according to a new report from BloombergNEF (BNEF), which predicts 3GW of residential solar PV capacity additions this year, up from last year’s record of 2.8GW.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

With the utility-scale solar sector set for its best year since 2016 – and capacity additions set to soar in 2021 – the analysis says renewable energy has “largely avoided the full brunt of the pandemic”.

While the renewables industry was hit by widespread job losses and demand for residential PV was down in Q2 as shelter-in-place measures came into effect, BNEF notes that as soon as consumers adapted to the new reality, interest in home solar quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels.

A transition to digital sales during lockdown is said to have enabled solar companies to reach new customers and improve sales productivity, with BNEF expecting 5% year-on-year growth for residential PV 2020, and 22% in 2021.

The positive figures echo comments made by panellists in a recent webinar hosted by Roth Capital, where it was suggested that sales growth in Q3 may give the residential solar sector momentum to avoid the slowdown often noted at the end of the year.

Record 2021 forecast for utility-scale solar

With US utility-scale PV capacity additions set to jump from 7.3GW last year to 10GW in 2020, BNEF notes that the sector shows little of the previously expected pandemic impact. Additions are set to break records next year, with the market driven by a solar boom in Texas.

However, the research organisation raised concerns that areas poised to see the most utility-scale growth are susceptible to weather events such as hurricanes and flooding. Meanwhile, tax equity is said to be in short supply as solar developers find themselves competing with wind to secure funds.

With the sector hit by uncertainty surrounding profitability, available capital and remote working, the US commercial and industrial (C&I) behind-the-meter solar segment will post a 16% decline in new capacity additions this year, the BNEF report predicts.

It is expected C&I solar projects have been delayed rather than cancelled, with capacity additions set to increase in 2022 as the US economy recovers.

Looking to the upcoming presidential election, the BNEF report says that while the renewable energy industry “will undoubtedly benefit” from a win for the Democrats, a Republican victory “would not be a disaster”, pointing to the fact that key Republicans were among the architects of recent tax credit deadline extensions.

7 October 2025
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 7-8 October 2025 is our third PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The events in 2023 and 2024 were a sell out success and 2025 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
21 October 2025
New York, USA
Returning for its 12th edition, Solar and Storage Finance USA Summit remains the annual event where decision-makers at the forefront of solar and storage projects across the United States and capital converge. Featuring the most active solar and storage transactors, join us for a packed two-days of deal-making, learning and networking.
16 June 2026
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 16-17 June 2026, will be our fifth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2027 and beyond.

Read Next

September 10, 2025
Cordelio Power has started commercial operations at its 150MW Winfield solar project in Lincoln County, Missouri.
September 10, 2025
Japanese solar cell manufacturer Toyo Solar has sold 1.6GW of solar PV cells in the first half of 2025, driving revenue of around US$139 million.
September 9, 2025
Nautilus and Summit Ridge Energy secured major financing deals to expand community solar projects across multiple US states.
September 9, 2025
The US is forecast to reach between US$55-60 billion in clean energy tax credit monetisation in 2025, according to a report from clean energy financing technology platform Crux.
September 9, 2025
The US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has released a policy blueprint which it claims would “strengthen the reliability of America’s electric grid with solar and storage technologies.”
September 9, 2025
US solar tracker manufacturer Nextracker has acquired Origami Solar, a steel frame technology-focused company, for approximately US$53 million. 

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
October 2, 2025
London,UK
Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
Manila, Philippines