PV will account for 3.6% of installed power generation globally by 2020, according to market analyst and advisor, Frost & Sullivan’s Annual Renewable Outlook 2013.
Solar PV’s share in total installed power generation globally was 0.7% in 2010; it is predicted to reach 2.4% by 2015 and 3.6% by 2020.
PV’s annual growth rate will also continue to overtake other renewable energies in installed capacity, with the report also predicting that solar PV installations will account for 10.9% of all renewable energy production by 2020 – more than 25% excluding hydro.
The annual report on renewable energy markets identifies key global trends and predicts growth over the next decade.
It forecasts the installed capacity of PV solar will be 30GW in 2013, with the trend of market activity moving away from European set to continue; having accounted for 68% of the global market in 2011, Europe declined to 58% in 2012 and 40% in 2013.
The highest growth rate regions over the next decade are predicted as Africa and Latin America, as market power shifts to emerging economies.
Urbanisation, population growth, and energy security concerns are identified as major contributors to the rise of renewable energy in emerging economies, and that developing countries need to diversify to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
But the report says solar will come under pressure from other “less expensive” forms of renewable energy generation. This is particularly the case at the moment, with numerous governments worldwide reassessing their priorities for capital cost subsidies and feed-in tariffs.
The overall installed capacity of renewable sources is estimated to reach 2,252.3GW by 2020.
“Concerted renewable energy strategies have been in place in countries such as China, India and Brazil for some time, and other emerging markets are now promoting renewables in a more systematic fashion,” said Frost & Sullivan Energy and Environmental Industry director Harald Thaler. “Among developed nations, Japan in particular is undergoing a seismic shift away from nuclear power towards a much greater focus on renewables.”
Thaler concluded that “climate and energy policies as well as long-term price-based incentives, such as subsidies and tax benefits, can substantially boost renewable energy penetration and innovation.”
