According to IMS Research, a contraction in PV module shipments is anticipated for 2009 due to the significant void left by Spain, due to its new 500MW cap on installations. Without the cap and favourable FIT (feed-in-tariffs) in 2008, Spain became the largest market for PV for the first time, surpassing Germany for the highest MW of installations. IMS Research expects a shortfall of some 1.5-2GW in 2009, which will not be absorbed by growth in other regions such as Italy and France.
“Despite credit issues, most major PV markets look healthy and are showing promise of significant growth,” commented IMS Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson. “However, even if their countries’ solar capacities grow at the high levels they saw in 2008, they cannot make up for the unprecedented contraction that the Spanish market will see this year. Many analysts are now predicting a decline in PV module revenues this year; IMS Research, having analysed the likely performance of individual countries, believes that MW shipments will also be lower.”
IMS Research said that underlying demand for PV remains very healthy; long term, double-digit annual growth rates can still be expected as North America as well as new technologies will further expand the PV market in the coming years.