Power Generation

Because most of the costs of developing a PV power plant are paid before any energy is generated, optimizing the energy production from the plant is critical during plant design. Lost energy and increased operations costs due to non-optimal site characterization, technology choice, plant design, installation and other factors result in lower energy production and a higher levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Many design decisions are based on results from PV performance models. Current PV performance models can represent only some of the differences between sites, technologies, designs and operations choices. This paper provides a description of what is currently known about some of the performance tradeoffs faced by PV plant designers and operators. It presents a vision for improving PV performance models so that in the near future a full optimization can be carried out to improve the performance and lower the costs of PV plants. This will hasten the adoption of clean energy production from the sun.

To achieve project cash flow expectations, it is necessary to operate, maintain and optimize the performance of a PV power asset to meet or exceed the pro forma operating assumptions. To assume as given the achievement of these model assumptions is both naive and risky. Experience in operating the largest fleet of solar PV power plants in the world has demonstrated that project financial hurdle rates can be missed by as much as 25% if the plant is not well maintained and its performance is not optimized. Conversely, an optimized PV asset can generate cash flows 2–10% higher than expected if the optimization approach described in this paper is implemented.

This paper provides an overview of reducing the ‘soft costs’ of solar, with a focus on driving down the cost of balance of system (BOS) and operations, primarily in commercial-scale installations. Attention is drawn to the internal data and information on specific case studies/best practices that can be replicated by other companies. Mainstream Energy (which supports three business units – REC Solar, AEE Solar and SnapNRack) aims to simplify system design and configuration by utilizing new technologies and streamlining internal processes to reduce total system cost – and take solar to the mainstream.

Economic success in operating PV systems depends essentially on the likelihood of their long-term operation and their delivery of the expected energy yield. These requirements, for which a lifetime of 20–25 years is often assumed, are demanding and cannot be met without preparation. Preconditions are the acceptable quality and long-term stability of the products employed (particularly the PV modules, but also all other components and materials) and the absence of damage to these items during transport and handling. Moreover, PV systems must be professionally planned and properly implemented. This includes considering energy yield assessments not only in the initial estimation of the energy yield, but also in the subsequent planning for concrete implementation. In addition, professional operational management and appropriate maintenance measures will ensure operation with maximum availability. Yield insurance policies can safeguard profitability and render the risks calculable; various models exist for this purpose and these must be carefully tested. It is important that the insurances services also cover the possible insolvency of the responsible system and component suppliers.

Like all semiconductor photovoltaic devices, cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules have a characteristic response to temperature changes. This paper describes the effects of the temperature coefficient of power, using operational system data to quantify the First Solar CdTe technology energy-yield advantage over typical crystalline silicon technology in high-temperature conditions. This paper also describes the underlying mechanisms of initial stabilization and longterm degradation that influence module efficiency. The processes used to characterize and rate module power output, given these effects, are further discussed. First Solar’s significant experience in building and operating power plants in high-temperature conditions, along with associated system performance data and accelerated lab test data, is reviewed to substantiate the warranty considerations and long-term capability of power plants using CdTe PV modules.

A typical financial structure for a utility-scale (i.e. larger than a few MW) PV project is the so-called ‘non-recourse project financing’. Experience shows that lenders may occasionally refuse financing because they dislike a technology or even a certain supplier. This past behaviour has created the ‘myth of bankability’ and the perceived necessity of manufacturers to get onto the banks’ ‘bankability lists’. But there is no strictly defined process for doing this, and many of the experienced banks do not even work with such lists for good reason. Moreover, ‘bankability’ is not a feature that a manufacturer or a product can achieve or maintain forever.

India is a unique market. As part of an India-specific strategy on the part of the players, solar capital costs in India have significantly fallen in relation to the global average. This paper describes the trend for lower cost modules and services to be offered by module suppliers and EPC companies in order to capture the greatest share of the Indian market. In this context, more importance is being given to gaining a greater market share than earning a higher return.

In trying to introduce its relatively new technology to traditional utility customers, the photovoltaic industry often finds itself in the awkward position of trying to sell a product to a customer who may not want to buy. The up-front capital costs of new solar plants (that deliver power only intermittently) can be less than appealing. Large-scale grid integration will therefore be accelerated by PV technologies that best fit the profile of traditional power sources. In addition to low cost, this includes high capacity factors and the ability to better match demand during daylight hours. Concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) power plants are now being integrated into the grid at megawatt scales. By performing light collection using acrylic, silicone, or glass optics instead of semiconductors, the material cost balance of PV is fundamentally shifted. The world’s most efficient solar cells can then be employed, and maintaining tracking of the sun becomes economically favorable across vast sunny locales worldwide. With AC system efficiencies in excess of 25%, the resulting CPV power plants produce high energy yields throughout the year and deliver the high capacity factors demanded by utility customers. Since semiconductors are a minority component cost, manufacturing capital costs are lower than for any other PV technology, allowing for rapid scale-up and field deployment. This article will describe the state of the art of CPV technology, field performance results, and the outlook for near-term deployments.

In recent years solar photovoltaic electricity has shown a steady decrease in cost, thanks to technological improvements and economies of scale. Over the last 20 years the price of PV modules has dropped by more than 20% each time the cumulative volume of PV modules sold has doubled. System prices have fallen accordingly: during the last 5 years a price decrease of 50% has been seen in Europe. This trend will continue in the foreseeable future. System prices are expected to fall in the next 10 years by 36–51%, depending on the segment. Importantly, there is a huge potential for further reductions in generation costs: around 50% by 2020. The cost of PV electricity generation in Europe could decrease from 0.16–0.35€/kWh in 2010 to 0.08–0.18€/kWh in 2020, depending on system size and irradiance level. That decline in cost will continue in the coming years as the PV industry progresses towards becoming competitive with conventional energy sources. Under the right policy and market conditions, PV competitiveness can be achieved in some markets as early as 2013, and then spread across the Continent in the different market segments by 2020. This paper summarizes the first part of a newly published EPIA report about PV competing in the energy sector. The report illustrates why PV can become a mainstream player in the energy field before 2020. The study, carried out with the support of the strategic consulting firm A.T. Kearney, shines new light on the evolution of Europe’s future energy mix and PV’s role in it.

The solar industry suddenly finds itself in an altered business climate in which construction markets seem permanently damaged and government subsidies are under challenge. This paper outlines how BIPV provides a strategy for expanding the market for PV and creating value-added products in a radically changed political, economic and financial environment.